The Sim Expects Low-Scoring World Series Game 5 With Slight Edge to Rays

The Sim correctly projected a high-scoring affair for game 1 and that one team would score its highest run total for the series.  The Sim projected that most likely to be the Rays, but it turned out to be the Phillies.  The Sim cited Joe Blanton's performance as the key leverage point - by far - and that turned out to be the difference.  Not only did Blanton come up with a stellar performance on the mound (2 runs, 7 Ks, only 2 BB in 6 innings), he also socked a home run.  What's up with these Phillie pitchers in the post-season???

The Sim also correctly called Ryan Howard to have a big night (3 for 4, 2 HR, 5 rbi), but none of Tampa Bay's hitters performed as projected.  Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton were a combined 0 for 8 and struck out 5 times.

Finally, the Sim correctly projected the Rays to make costly defensive mistakes, and were they ever costly!  Akinori Iwamura made 2 errors, the first of which led to 2 Philly runs in the third, while the second allowed Jimmy Rollins to reach base to start the fourth.  He later scored on Ryan Howard's first home run of the night.  One has to wonder how this series may be different but for those two errors... do the Phillies go 1-2-3 in the third?  Does Sonnanstine pitch differently to Werth and Howard if there is already an out in the 4th and he has the lead?  Does Howard even bat that inning?  Ah, we'll never know...

So, is it over? 

For game 5, our Diamond Mind Sim sees the game as pretty much a toss-up, just as in game 1.  The Sim gives the Rays a slight edge, as they won 1044 of the 2,000 simulations of game 3, or 52%.  On average, Tampa Bay outscored Philadelphia 4.2 to 3.9, a small margin.  Tonight does not project be a high-scoring game, which is no surprise given that Cole Hamels is facing Scott Kazmir.

When we then simulated the rest of the Series with the Phils up 3 games to 1, the Phillies won the Series 80% of the time, and tonight looks like Tampa Bay's toughest challenge. 

Keys to the Game:  The Sim projects a fairly even match between the starting pitchers, with a slight edge to Hamels, but it sees high odds for the Phillies' bullpen to struggle tonight and be out-pitched by the Rays, quite the opposite of the way things have been going.  That includes closer Brad Lidge, who shows high odds of a blown save.  So, it appears critical for Kazmir to keep the game close or outduel Hamels.  When he does that in the Sim runs, the Rays typically win.  If not, the Phans in Philadelphia will likely party hearty!

Of the hitters, Pat Burrell and Jayson Werth project as most likely to have a big night for the Phillies, while Ryan Howard appears to cool off tonight.  For the Rays, it looks like Upton and Iwamura are the most likely stars, as they'll need to get on base and score if the Rays are to win.  This is another key leverage point - when those guys had an off night in the simulations, the Rays usually lost.

Intangibles:  The young Rays showed their grit in winning game 7 against Boston after blowing a big lead in game 5 and then losing again in game 6.  But they weren't facing Cole Hamels in front of a hostile Philly crowd hungry for its first championship in decades.  Given how close the simulations runs are, emotion and Hamels could end this tonight.

- Dayne

Read the Diamond Mind World Series sim projection on ESPN.com

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