October 15, 2008 | By: Dayne Myers | Posted in: CEO Posts, Company News, Diamond Mind, Industry News, MLB Playoffs, SIM Analysis, SIM Stats, Tips

The Sim Sees Dodgers by a Dread in Tight NLCS Game 5

Sorry, LA. As a former resident of Los Angeles, I feel your pain. To make it worse, we called it:

"the Dodger pen projects as having a high risk of being shaky for this game. So, your key leverage points are whether Lowe is able to do well on 3-days' rest and whether the LA pen holds it if he does. If not, the Dodgers may have trouble tonight if they can't out-hit the Phils to win."

After a shaky first inning, Lowe delivered. But the LA pen, stellar for most of the regular season, blew up in a spectacular way in the 8th inning.

The Sim also nailed the hitting stars: "Furcal again projects to spark some run-scoring" (He had a hit and 2 walks in 5 plate appearances, scoring 2 runs)

"... while Manny projects as likely to have a big hit." (2 for 2, double, RBI)
"Burrell, Utley or Howard show a high probability of an extra-base hit." (Utley doubled as part of a 3 for 5 night.)
"Looking for a surprise star? Sim says it might be one of the catchers: Russ Martin and Carlos Ruiz come up with a big contribution in a higher-than-expected number of sim runs." (It was Ruiz: 2 for 3 plus a walk)

So, is it over?

After running our Diamond Mind simulation 2,000 times, game 5 of the Dodgers-Phillies was our second closest game result ever - the Dodgers won 1006 times, or 50.3%, but the Phillies averaged 4.3 runs to the Dodgers' 4.1. So, The Sim sees this game as a toss-up. It's anyone's ballgame tonight.

As for the series, The Phillies are big favorites to close this out - when we ran the final games with the Phillies up 3-1, they won 84% of the series runs and closed it out in 6 or less 71% of the time.

Keys to the Game billingsley_399

: With the game projected as close as this one, any players performing above or below projections will likely have a big impact. Both starting pitchers (Chad Billingsley for LA, Cole Hamels for Philly, both pictured) project to have solid games, with Hamels likely pitching a tad better and going deeper in the game. Given how much the bullpe hamels1_300

ns were used the past couple of games, particularly Philadelphia's, Hamel being able to go deep into the game might be key. If he gets roughed up or makes an exit earlier than the 6th or 7th, The Sim sees trouble for the Phils.

The Sim sees this game likely to be decided by walks, hit batters or errors, and the walks and unearned runs favor Philadelphia. So, if the Dodger pitchers have good control and the fielders don't make critical errors, LA is favored. The Sim sees Pat Burrell, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins as most likely to produce a key walk or hit. It doesn't project any LA hitters as having high odds of a big night and sees Philly pitching around Manny. If the Sim is on target here, LA wins the close games with pitching and defense. Otherwise, the Phillies are likely to wrap this one up.

Intangibles: Are the Dodgers mentally beaten, particularly their bullpen, after blowing it last night? If so, we might see it in sloppy play or pitching... and that may be LA's doom.

- Dayne

Check out Imagine Sports’ NLCS and ALCS predictions on ESPN.com.

Comments

Lets go Dodgers. I hate the Phils. I hope Hamels has a rough outing.

Posted by on 10/15 at 07:28 AM

What’s a “Dread”?

Posted by on 10/15 at 04:19 PM

Referring to Manny Ramirez’s dreadlocks

Posted by on 10/15 at 04:39 PM

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