The Sim Says Tampa Bay Will Bring Home the Title

The 2008 postseason has produced one of the more intriguing World Series match-ups of recent years: a pair of “Cinderella” stories.  The young upstarts from Tampa  Bay, who went from worst to first, beating the defending champion Red Sox and the big market, big-spending Yankees for the AL East title, facing the franchise that has lost more games than any other, the Philadelphia Philles.

We previously employed our Diamond Mind simulation software to project the results of the League Divisional and Championship Series.  In the American League, we projected the Rays to easily defeat the White Sox, most likely in four games, and the Angels to defeat the Red Sox, but only if they could win game one.  In the NLDS, our simulations projected the Phillies to defeat the Brewers, most likely in four games, and the Dodgers to upset the Cubs.  The Phillies and Rays easily dispatched their opponents in four games, the Dodgers did indeed upset the favored Cubbies, and the Red Sox won that crucial opening game and went on to eliminate the Angels.

Our ALCS projections for ESPN.com projected the Rays to defeat the Red Sox, though we did not foresee the drama of Tampa Bay blowing a 7-0 lead in an elimination game, as the Rays did in game 5 when they had Boston on the ropes.  Though the simulations nailed the Rays victory, our projectiosn showed the Dodgers as favorites over the Phillies thanks to superior pitching.  However, the simulations did show that the Phillies needed 2 wins from Cole Hamels (below, right) particularly in game one.  Interestingly, our simulations also showed a high risk of a meltdown by the Dodgers’ bullpen, most likely in game four.  The Phils did indeed get two gems from Hamels, starting with game one, and the Dodger bullpen did indeed implode in game four, blowing a fine performance by Derek Lowe and pretty much sinking LA’s chances.

Before revealing our World Series simulation results, here is a brief recap of our methodology: 

· Before the postseason got underway, we updated our projections and ratings for each player based on his 2008 regular season performance.

· Prior to running our simulations for each series, based on the information available at the time and using our best judgment, we set the teams’ starting rotations, batting orders, bullpen and bench roles.   This was particularly difficult in the case of the Phillies, who had not announced their line-ups and who would serve as the DH for games in Tampa, so we made our best guess.

· Then we played each series 2,000 times.

As we noted in our previous articles for ESPN.com, luck plays an even greater role in a short series than the regular season, which itself can be rather unpredictable.  Bearing that caveat in mind, the results of our simulations project the Tampa Bay Rays to continue their Cinderella run and defeat the Phillies.  In fact, Tampa Bay won over 71% of our 2,000 series simulations, the largest winning margin of any of our 2008 post-season projections and even more than the Red Sox won when we projected them to defeat the Rockies last year.  The simulations results:

In all the series we’ve projected for ESPN, we’ve never had such a heavy favorite.  In fact, when we projected the Red Sox as heavy favorites last year, we gave them a decent chance of a sweep (Boston swept 105 of the 1,000 series simulations).  In contrast, Tampa Bay swept 299 of the 2,000 simulations we ran for this year’s Series, or 15%, and the Rays won the Series in 5 games or less 626 times (31.3%)!  In other words, the simulations do not look good at all for the Phillies, and the odds are against them even making it to a seventh game.  

There are, however, a number of features presented by this series capable of confounding any attempt to project or predict the outcome:

• The Designated Hitter.  In Philadelphia, there won’t be a DH, costing Tampa Bay one of its big producers on offense.  But the Phillies don’t really have a good hitter who can fill this role for the games at Tampa Bay.  For the simulations, we chose to start Pat Burrell at DH when facing the Rays’ lone left-handed starting pitcher, Scott Zamir (below, left), and Eric Bruntlett in left field.  For the other games against the Rays’ right-handers, we assumed Greg Dobbs would DH.

• The Layoff.  The Phillies will not have played for a full week by the time the first pitch is thrown on Wednesday.  Our simulation does not factor in any effect for such a layoff.  When there has been a long layoff, a recent phenomenon, the results have not been good for the team forced to wait, as pointed out by ESPN’s Jayson Stark in his article.  The 2006 Tigers and 2007 Rockies faced similar delays, and both were defeated easily.  Given that teams rarely have more than one or two days off during the regular season, needing to wait several days to get back in action appears to hurt a team’s chances.

• The Weather.  Our Diamond Mind simulation software does include weather effects, so seasonably chilly weather in Philadelphia did affect the results of our series simulations, while there were no weather effects for the games in the dome at Tropicana Field.  Nevertheless, unseasonably cold (or warm) weather, including rain, gusty wind and snow, could effect the series in a number of ways, such as causing postponements that might allow Cole Hamels to start three series games on full rest, which would be a big help to the Phillies.

As good as Philadelphia’s pitching has been in its run to the World Series, our simulations suggest that the Rays’ young guns will easily outduel the Phils’ pitching, with the exception of Cole Hamels, who projects as the only Philadelphia starter to perform well.  Hamels turned in an ERA of 3.65 and averaged one win for the 2,000 series simulations, while no other Phillie starter posted an ERA less than 4.70.  The young Tampa starters, on the other hand, put in strong performances, particularly James Shields (3.18 ERA) and Matt Garza (3.38), the winner of game 7 against Boston.  Scott Kazmir (4.09) and Andy Sonnanstine (4.26) did not project as well but still were better than the Philly rotation beyond Hamels.   The bullpens both project to do well, though the Rays’ pen did a bit better in the simulations.  So, it appears that it will come down to the starting pitching – unless the Phillies’ starters can step up and outshine the Rays’ rotation and perform like they did against the Dodgers, Tampa Bay will be claiming its first World Series trophy.

While the Rays’ generally hit better than the Phillies, posting a .263 team batting average to the Phillies’ paltry .201, the key difference was walks – Tampa hitters reached base far more often than Philly hitters, and that translated into many more runs.  Home runs did not appear to be a major factor for either team, quite a difference from the ALCS, where the Rays hit 16 home runs in the seven games against the Red Sox. 
B.J. Upton stays hot and continues to spark the Tampa Bay offense in our simulations, reaching base (.385 OBP) and scoring more often than anyone in either line up, while Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena drove in the most runs.  The simulations showed Longoria as most likely to have a big home run tally in the series, and he had the highest slugging percentage and OPS (.798) in the series simulations, followed closely by Pena (.789 OPS) and Carl Crawford (.788).  

In contrast, none of the Phillies had a particularly good series in the 2,000 simulation , as the Tampa Bay pitchers usually kept them in check.   In fact, the Phils averaged a very poor .269 on-base percentage for the 2,000 sim runs.   If the Phillies are to have a serious shot at winning the Series, they’ll need to do much better at getting on base than they did in the simulations.  If you want a single stat that could be most telling, it’ll be the Phillies’ ability to get on base more often than the simulations show.  When the Phillies did come through, the biggest contributions were most likely to come from Jayson Werth or Pat Burrell, while the Phillies’ big names – Utley, Rollins, and Howard – typically came up short.  In fact, they each hit .217 or worse for the Series.  But when Utley, Rollins and Howard come up big in the simulation runs, the Phillies typically won.  Unfortunately for Philadelphia, it didn’t happen very often.  

A short series often will produce standout performances, sometimes from unlikely sources (like David Eckstein in the 2006 World Series).  Imagine if a series actually were replayed 2,000 times, which is more post-season series than have been played throughout the entire history of Major League Baseball: the odds of something extraordinary occurring would increase significantly.  The simulations show that Tampa Bay’s defensive star, shortstop Jason Bartlett, just might be that guy – he came up with a big hit in a surprisingly high number of simulations.  Looking for a stand-out game?  Matt Garza threw a no-hitter in simulation number 1493, while James Shields had three one-hitters in the 2,000 simuations.

Winning Game One of a short series is such an advantage that it frequently will shift the odds in favor of an underdog.  In fact, when the favorite in our simulations last year lost the opening game, they lost the series.  In the 2008 World Series, however, the odds favor Tampa Bay so heavily that we believe they can overcome a Game One loss.   All bets are off, of course, if the Rays drop the second game as well.  If the Phillies lose that opening game, however, the simulations give them less than a 10% chance of taking the Series.

If the Phillies are to overcome the odds and deny the Rays a World Series championship in their first attempt, the key appears to be getting great pitching from their starting pitchers that follow Cole Hamels in the rotation – Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton – while also trying to overcome the rust of a seven-day layoff to win Game One.  Bottom line, however, is that Imagine Sports projects a championship for those Cinderella Rays, who will go from worst all the way to the top – with victory most likely coming in six games or less … but with a good chance that Tampa Bay takes it in four or five.

 Also read this prediction on ESPN.com

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