The Sim Projects Game 7 Toss-Up; Rays Staking, Holding Early Lead Key Factor

Well, The Sim predicted the Rays as favorites for game 6, but it said that the key leverage point was the pitching of Josh Beckett... if he pitched well and topped Tampa Bay starter James Shields, the Red Sox would win.  Sure enough, he did just that, allowing only 2 runs on 4 hits in outdueling Shields. 

So, now it's on to the big game 7, one that the Rays must be thinking would never have happened had the bullpen held a 7-0 lead in game 5.  Is The Sim willing to stick with the Rays or go with Boston's momentum?

After 2,000 sim runs, Tampa Bay won 1,050, making the Rays 52.5% favorites, and they outscored the Bosox by an average of 4.2 to 3.9.  That's not much of an edge.  And given that The Sim can't really factor in momentum and emotion, this just might be a toss-up. 

Keys to the Game:  Much hangs on Tampa starting pitcher Matt Garza (pictured, left)  Over the 2,000 sim runs, he matches Boston starter Jon Lester and slightly outpitches Lester.  But it's close.  The Boston bullpen, however, bests the Rays' pen in most simulations.  So, again, this one appears to be about whether the Rays can get out in front and whether the bullpen can hold the lead.  If the Red Sox are winning late, The Sim likes Boston.

On offense, The Sim sees Evan Longoria and BJ Upton as the keys for Tampa Bay, with David Ortiz (pictured) being a key leverage point for Boston.  If Longoria comes up big and Upton stays hot, The Sim sees Boston having a tough time winning.  And Ortiz, who has had a very poor post-season before a big game last night (2 for 4, double, HR), appears to be a key leverage point for Boston - the Red Sox win most sim when he comes up with a big hit or walk. 

1. Garza needs to out-pitch Lester
2. Tampa Bay's bullpen
3. A contribution from David Ortiz
4. Longoria and Upton come up big.

Intangibles:  Given the inexperience of Matt Garza and the pressure on him, plus the enormous pressure on the Rays' bullpen, The Sim is very nervous about the Rays.  Jumping out to a big lead might be critical to taking the pressure off.  Still, the Red Sox experience, especially in pressure situations and the post-season, might swing this Boston's way.

- Dayne

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