The Sim Predicts Low-Scoring Game 1 from Hamels-Kazmir Matchup

In our Diamond Mind simulations of the 2008 World Series for ESPN, we projected the Rays as overwhelming favorites to defeat the Phillies and claim their first championship.  In fact, the Rays won a greater percentage of the simulated series than any that we've done over the past few years, which surprised us, given how heavily the simulations favored the Red Sox over the Rockies in last year's World Series.  Starting pitching was clearly the difference, with each Tampa Bay starter out-pitching his opponent over the course of the Series, with an especially pronounced gap in the 2-3-4 slots.

If the Phillies are to have a chance, they need to win game one, when they have their ace, Cole Hamels, on the mound against Scott Kazmir.  Our simulations show this game to be the Phils' best chance, but the Rays still won 1,035 of our 2,000 sim runs of tonight's game, indicating the Rays are slight 51.8% favorites.  But since both teams averaged 3.6 runs, indicating this is really a toss-up.  It's also likely to be a low-scoring game.

Keys to the Game:  Both starting pitchers did well in our simulations, but Kazmir did a bit better, giving up fewer hits and earned runs than Hamels.  However, The Sim sees a higher-than-normal probability of the Phillies scoring an unearned run or more, evening things out in the bullpens.  Both pens project to do well, but the Rays just do a tad better.  All in all, this looks likely to be a low-scoring, close game. 

As might be expected in a low-scoring game, not many hitters project to have a big night.  For the Rays, BJ Upton (pictured) and Willy Aybar look most likely to spark run-scoring, while Evan Longoria is most likely to have a big power night.  Pat Burrell and Jayson Werth project as most likely to contribut for the Phillies.  In fact, Burrell projects as most likely to have a big night for either team.

Key Leverage Points:  if one of the starting pitchers does significantly worse than the other, that team loses most simulations.  Defense could be a key leverage point.  The Sim sees a high potential for a costly mistake by the Rays.  If they avoid that, Tampa Bay's odds improve significantly.  Conversely, the Phillies cannot afford a defensive lapse. 

Intangibles:  The Phillies haven't played in a week.  That sort of lay-off has spelled trouble for teams in recent years (see Tigers in '06, Rockies in '07).  Look for Philadelphia hitting and fielding to be off.  The Sim sees a solid performance from Hamels and the bullpen... can the players in the field do the job?

Read the Diamond Mind World Series sim projection on ESPN.com

- Dayne

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