The Sim Predicts Rays Will Bounce Back Behind Shields

Wow, that game 5 was really something.  And, true to form, our Diamond Mind simulation called it:

"This indicates a good probability of a high-scoring game, with Boston having the edge if the game is low-scoring and/or close."

It was indeed high-scoring, and it was close... giving the edge to Boston as it won 8-7 in one of the greatest comebacks in post-season history. 

Dice-K got roughed up, as projected by The Sim, but Scott Kazmir gave a stellar performance, shutting out Boston for 6 innings and putting the Rays in an excellent position to win.  The Red Sox middle relief also performed poorly, as Delcarmen gave up 2 runs before Papelbon was called on to keep things from getting too ugly.  The Sim also warned that the Boston late-inning relief would outperform the Rays' late-inning relief.  Boy, was that ever true!  The Rays' relievers gave up 8 runs over the final 3 innings, including the game-winner in the 9th.

As for hitters, The Sim correctly projected a big night for J.D. Drew, Jason Bay or Noah Lowrie, and Drew came through in a big way, going 2 for 4, including at 2-run homer that closed the gap to a run and then the game-winning hit in the 9th.  The Sim also correctly projected Pedroia and Youkilis as likely to get on base and score (each scored a run). 

For the Rays, the Sim projected big nights from Gabe Gross, Carlos Pena, and Cliff Floyd.  Gross and Floyd came up empty, but Pena had a big night (2 for 4, HR, 2 RBI, 1 run).  The Sim also projected Iwamura and Upton as likely to spark scoring for the Rays, and they each scored twice while Upton also drove in 4.

On to game 6...

How will the young Tampa Bay squad respond to an implosion of historic proportions after being only 7 outs away from clear sailing to the World Series? 

The Sim thinks they'll bounce back.  The Rays won 1158 of the 2000 sim runs of game 6, or 57.9%, and they outscored Boston by an average score of 4.9 to 4.1.  This makes the Rays solid favorites, though not necessarily overwhelming ones.  

Keys to the Game:  In most sim runs, the Rays out-hit the Red Sox, as James Shields out-pitches Josh Beckett.  And, this turns out to be the key leverage point - the Red Sox typically win when Beckett bests Shields.  So, a lot appears to be riding on Tampa Bay's young starter. 

On offense, practically no one shows high odds of a big night.  In fact, of all of the playoff game previews we've done over the past few years, no game has shown so low of a likelihood of any particular hitters standing out.   Those small odds favor a big hit from J.D. Drew for the Bosox, and Cliff Floyd or Carlos Pena for the Rays, though even those three don't show big odds of a big night.  This indicates a key leverage point - if a hitter or two on one team could break through with a big night, that team has a big edge, particularly with the long ball. 

Intangibles:  The psyche of the Rays and the defense of the Red Sox!  The Sim again sees a higher-than-normal probability of unearned runs playing a big factor in Tampa Bay's favor.  It didn't happen in game 5, but The Sim again sees it as a risk point for Boston.  The Sim cannot simulate mental state, however... how will the Rays react, particularly their bullpen pitchers?  If the Rays' collapse had happened in game 6, it might be curtains - just ask the '86 Red Sox or the '02 Giants about the ability to bounce back after blowing late leads in a game 6.  But having an off day, returning to their home field, and knowing that they've still got game 7 if they don't win tonight surely might help ease the pressure on the Rays.  But watch that first inning or two by the relievers - if rocky, that might spell trouble. 

That said, we think this is the Rays' night, and they'll finish in 6, just as we predicted as the most likely outcome in our series predictions for ESPN.

- Dayne

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