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October 12, 2008   |   By: Dayne Myers   |   Posted in: CEO Posts, Company News, Diamond Mind, Industry News, MLB Playoffs, SIM Analysis, SIM Stats, Tips

The Sim Predicts Dodgers in NLCS Game 3 Behind Strong Kuroda Outing

kuroda_400Well, our Diamond Mind simulation picked the Dodgers, who did not win, but it nailed the game dynamics.  Specifically:

"The Sim sees a big night for Manny and for Rafael Furcal.  If other players step up, the odds become very strong in LA's favor.  If those two have an off night, things don't look good for LA unless
the rest of the line up steps up."

Manny had a 3-run homer and Furcal had a single, but that's all either one did.  The rest of the line-up did not step up. 
OK, score:  "This projects to be one of the highest scoring games of this series,
as the Dodgers average 5.4 runs to 4.6 for Philly."


13 runs scored.

"Both starters struggle in most simulations, with neither projecting to make it
through the 6th inning. 

Billingsley was gone by the third after giving up 8 runs in two and a third innings.  Brett Myers (no relation) gave up 5 in 5.  Check.

"The Dodger bullpen, however, outduels the Phillie pen in most sim runs."


The LA pen did shut down the Phils the rest of the way, but the Phillie pen matched it.

"A key leverage point for the Phillies in this game is getting on base. Several hitters project as getting more likely to overperform in hits (particularly Werth) and walks (Howard, Rollins).  If the Dodger
pitchers have good control, it will be tough for the Phillies to pull this out."

Boy, did The Sim nail this.  The Phils got 11 hits and 8 walks, for a team on-base percentage of .428 for the game.  Nice work. 

What The Sim did not foresee is Brett Myers going 3 for 3 and driving in 3 runs!  I went back to the stats detail for the 2,000 individual game sim runs we did to see how many times Myers got 3 hits or 3 rbi, but The Sim didn't even bother to print those out because the odds of significant impact were so low.  He hit all of .069 during the regular season.  His OPS was a paltry .302, and his OPS+ (normalized) was an awful -21.  The man had FOUR HITS ALL SEASON, yet Dodger pitchers somehow managed to let him get 3 hits in one game of the playoffs!  Ah, baseball...

OK, what does The Sim say about game 3, with the Dodgers having their backs against the proverbial wall? 

The Dodgers come through this time, Sim says, winning 1177 of the 2,000 sim runs of game 3, which equates to a 59% odds.  L.A. outscored the Phils by an average score of 4.6 to 3.9.  Pitching will be the key, as the Dodgers ride a strong performance by Hiroki Kuroda (pictured), who averages giving up just 2 earned runs over nearly 7 strong innings.  Jamie Moyer projects to have a decent game but be out-pitched by Kuroda.

Keys to the Game:  Sim says Kuroda, pure and simple.  When he has a strong start, the Dodgers usually win.  The Dodgers lose most sim runs where he doesn't pitch well.  Not much more to say about that - this is the biggest leverage point in this game, by far.

If you're looking for hitting stars, The Sim doesn't see many as having really high odds of a big night, other than Rafael Furcal as being much more likely both to get on base and score than anyone on either team.  Manny and Ethier project as most likely to drive in runs for the Dodgers.  For the Phils, Utley and Howard are the most likely hitting stars.  If the Phils are to win, Sim says, they might need a big blast or two.

Intangibles:  It really comes down to Kuroda.  This game has an unusually high leverage on his performance.

Overall, the Phils' victories in the first 2 games made the Phillies 71.2% favorites to win the series.  That is surprisingly low for having already won 2 games, indicating that The Sim still thinks the Dodgers have a shot at a comeback. 
 

-Dayne

Check out Imagine Sports’ NCLS prediction on ESPN.


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Posted by on 01/31 at 09:01 AM

I want to send you an award for most helpful itneenrt writer.

Posted by on 12/01 at 06:39 AM

I agree with Robert.  Sometimes a box score can be deceiving. Hughes deieintfly struggled against a terrible team.  I just don’t ever see him being a reliable starter.

Posted by on 10/11 at 07:29 PM

I really don’t<a > uatersdnnd</a> what the point of getting Kuroda would be. He is not as good as Nova, which is why I hear the Dodgers are asking Nova. We would be so stupid to trade Nova for Kuroda.

Posted by on 10/12 at 04:06 AM

I really think that now Kuroda or Oswalt make a lot of sense for us, CJ no tahnks, I was rooting for my favorite Buehrle but now with teams offering him the amount of money he wants and 3 years he is out of the radar.The same for Danks, asking for Banuelos and Montero hahaha that doesn’t make any sense.Kuroda or Oswalt 1 year and Darvish or Garza that should be our target http://xywoyr.com obnfkoozyxw [link=http://wunxnad.com]wunxnad[/link]

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