The Sim Continues Prediction Hot Streak, Calls Rays in Game 3...Barely
The Streak continues... For game 2 of the ALCS, Diamond Mind projected that neither starting pitching would last as long as the 6th inning, that the game would be high-scoring, and that the Rays would win... and win late. Could it have been more accurate... the Rays won game 2 in 11 innings, 9-8. The Sim also predicted big nights for Jason Bay (he went 3 for 5, HR, 4 RBI), Lowrie (had 3 BB), Youkilis (3 for 6, HR, 1 RBI, 2 runs scored), Pedroia (3 for 5, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 4 runs scored), Crawford (2 for 5, 2 RBI), and Pena (2 for 5, 2 RBI, 2 runs). The only one projected for a big night who came up short was Jason Varitek (0 for 3).
So, feeling sm
ug, The Sim strolled in late today... "I deserved to sleep in," he said.
For game 3, it likes the Rays again, but just barely - the Rays won 1,035 out of the 2,000 sim runs, or 50.2%, though Tampa Bay averaged 4.6 runs to the Red Sox 4.1. That indicates that the Red Sox have better odds if this is a close game, while the Rays tend to be more likely to win if it's not close.
Keys to the Game: Jon Lester (picture, top) and Matt Garza (pictured, lower) project to have solid but unspectacular games. Unlike the ALDS, where Lester was spectacular, The Sim does not see him as dominating the Rays the way the handled the Angels. Garza, however, matches him in performance. So, a key leverage point in this one is whether one of these starters out-pitches the other.
On offense, J.D. Drew projects as the mostly likely hitter of either team to have a big night, with David Ortiz finally projecting to make a significant contribution, most likely a key walk at a critical moment in the game. For the Rays, the Sim likes BJ Upton or Evan Longoria as most likely to have a big night.
Looking for t
he surprise here? The Sim shows some keys hit possibly coming from Aybar, Bartlett or Baldelli on the Rays, Lowrie or Kotsay for the Red Sox.
Defense may be a key leverage point in this game. The Red Sox make critical errors and give up critical unearned runs in an unusually high number of sim runs. Statistical abberration, or will Boston make a big mistake or two tonight?
Intangibles: Jon Lester was hot, but the Red Sox stuck to their normal turns in the rotation rather than let him pitch game 2. Did the extra rest do him good, or did the lay-off cool him down? If The Sim is correct, he might not be as sharp as his recent outings.
Overall, The Sim now projects that the odds for winning the series overal have swung back to the Rays. When we simulated the remaining 5 games after the series being tied 1-1, the Rays won 56.8% of the time.
-Dayne
Check out Imagine Sports’ NLCS and ALCS predictions on ESPN.com.
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