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October 11, 2008   |   By: Dayne Myers   |   Posted in: CEO Posts, Company News, Diamond Mind, Industry News, MLB Playoffs, SIM Analysis, SIM Stats, Tips

The Sim Again Favors Rays in Game 2, Predicts Late-Game Win

Well, Mr. Sim nails it again... though it gave the Rays the edge in game 1, the simulations showed that the Red Sox would win if Dice-K had better control than normal and pitched well.  How much better can you pitch than taking a no-hitter into the 7th inning?  Shields pitched as projected - The Sim projected a strong performance through 7, which he did, but Dice-K's performance was the key leverage point.  The Sim saw a Red Sox win if he came through, and he sure did.  Kevin Youkilis (pictured) was Boston's hitting star, as projected.

For game 2, The Sim again likes the Rays, and now they need to win.  The odds have now swung in Boston's favor - the Red Sox won 61% of the simulations of the series when they won game 1.  For today's game, the Rays won 1128 games out of 2,000 sim runs, outscoring the Red Sox by an average of 5.0 to 4.5, which indicates a high-scoring game, with both starters (Kazmir and Beckett) gone by the end of the 6th.  On average, they each give solid but unspectacular performances, with Beckett actually doing slightly better than Kazmir.  However, the Rays bullpen out-pitched the Boston pen in most sim runs, and the Rays project to win this one late.
kevinyoukilis_512
Looking for likely heroes on offense?  Sim says to watch Bay, Varitek and Lowrie for Boston, thought Pedroia and Youkilis, who projected best for the whole series, also project well in this game.  For the Rays, Floyd and Gross project best, though a number of sim runs show big hits from Pena and Crawford as well.

Intangibles:  A large number of sim runs show Boston with a high number of runners left on base.  So watch when the Red Sox have runners on... if they get the clutch hits, they'll most likely win.  If they leave a high number of runners on, however, the Rays' odds are very good.

 -Dayne                                                     

Check out Imagine Sports’ NLCS and ALCS predictions on ESPN.com.

Want more detail on The Sim’s LDS predictions?  See the links below:

NLDS

Phillies-Brewers Series (prediction, result)

Game 1 (prediction, result)

Game 2 (prediction, result)

Game 3 (prediction, result)

Game 4 (prediction, result)

Phillies Win Series 3-1 

 

Dodgers-Cubs Series (prediction, result)

Dodgers-Cubs Game 1 (prediction, result)

Dodgers-Cubs Game 2 (prediction, result)

Dodgers-Cubs Game 3 (prediction, result)

Dodgers Win Series 3-0

 

ALDS

Angels-Red Sox Series (prediction, result)

Game 1 (prediction, result)

Game 2 (prediction, result)

Game 3 (prediction, result)

Game 4 (prediction, result)

Red Sox Win Series 3-1

 

Rays-White Sox Series (prediction, result)

Game 1 (prediction, result)

Game 2 (prediction, result)

Game 3 (prediction, result)

Game 4 (prediction, result)

Rays Win Series 3-1

 

 


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