Still Feeling Smug, The Sim Likes Rays in World Series Game 2

So, the Diamond Mind simulation is feeling good about its call for last night's game... the Phillies topped the Rays in a close 3-2 pitching battles.  The Sim's projections were that game one would be (a) a close game that was a toss-up as to the winner; (b) the Phillies' best chance to win a game; (c) it would be low-scoring; and (d) that both starting pitchers would do well.  

The Sim also projected Pat Burrell and Jayson Werth as most likely to have a big night for the Phillies.  Though Burrell came up empty, Werth had 2 doubles plus a walk and scored the Phils' first run.  However, the Rays most likely to come up big - Longoria, Upton, and Aybar - came up totally empty, and it was a key factor in the game.  They were a combined 0 for 12, plus Upton left 5 on base while Longoria struck out 3 times. 

Both bullpens shined, as projected.  Defense was indeed a key leverage point - The Sim said that the Phillies could not afford a costly mistake.  Though Ryan Howard did make an error, it was not a costly one.

So, fresh from an accurate call of the dynamics of game one, what does The Sim see for game two?

After 2,000 simulations, The Sim likes the Rays, giving them a 63.4% chance of winning tonight.  On average, Tampa Bay outscored Philadelphia 4.8 to 3.7, quite a healthy margin over 2,000 sim runs.  Overall, The Sim still likes the Rays to take the series, but the Phillies' odds went up dramatically... running the simulations after a game one win, Philly now takes the series 42.7% of the time.

Keys to the Game:  Can you say, "Starting Pitchers"...?   Sure you can.  For the next 3 games, the Rays' edge in the rotations becomes glaringly apparent in the simulations, and tonight is the start of it.  While Brett Myers (no relation!) (pictured left) is capable of a good game (just ask the Dodgers!), The Sim shows that James Shields (pictured, right) out-pitches him most of the time.  In fact, The Sim projects a strong 7 innings for Shields tonight, while Myers typically was gone by the 6th.  And it does get better after that - the Philly bullpen does not project to have a good night (other than Brad Lidge, should he get the opportunity).  So, even if Myers comes up big tonight, there are decent odds that the Philly middle relief will still blow it. 

Of the hitters, it doesn't look like a good night for the Phils, of course, but Ryan Howard shows as having the best odds of a big contribution, with Chase Utley a distant second.  For the Rays, it looks like Carlos Pena's night.  He projects as having a big night far more than any other player in game 2, followed by Cliff Floyd.  Upton looks like he'll bounce back from his bad night in game one - look for him and Iwamura to spark the Rays.  They got on base and scored in a high number of sim runs. 

Defense looks like it could be a factor tonight.  On average, both teams show good odds of giving up unearned runs, particularly the Phillies. 

All in all, the key leverage points are whether Shields outduels Myers... and whether a defensive miscue hurts one of the teams.

Intangibles:  B.J. Upton went from super hot to ice cold last night.  Could that get into his head, given that he's now playing on the biggest of stages?  He certainly wouldn't be the first big league star to have a sudden meltdown in the World Series.  I do like Joe Maddon's demeanor - he looked loose and calm last night, and that's a good thing for a young team playing in its first World Series.

- Dayne

Read the Diamond Mind World Series sim projection on ESPN.com

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