The Sim Says Rays To Take Game 4 If They Solve Wakefield's Knuckleball
Our Diamond Mind simulation is on a roll.
Yesterday, it projected the Rays as slight favorites over the Red Sox, adding that the Rays were likely to win if it was not close but a close game favored Boston. Well, it was 9-1, and the Rays won. To top off a fine night for The Sim, it correctly warned that the Dodgers' bullpen may throw away a strong performance from Derek Lowe. Did it ever.
In the Boston-Tampa Bay game, the Sim also correctly nailed a key leverage point:
"Unlike the ALDS, where Lester was spectacular, The Sim does not see him as dominating the Rays the way the handled the Angels. Garza, however, matches him in performance. So, a key leverage point in this one is whe
ther one of these starters ou
t-pitches the other."
Garza had an excellent performance (1 run and 6 hits over 6 IP), while Lester gave up 5 runs in 5 and two-thirds. Thanks to Garza, none of the Red Sox had a really big night, Mark Kotsay, one of The Sim's sleeper picks, did come through. The Sim also projected Longoria and Upton to be most likely to have a big night for the Rays, and they made The Sim look good - each homered and reached base twice, with Upton driving in 3 and Longoria scoring twice. The Sim had Aybar, Bartlett or Baldelli as potential sleeper picks on offense. Sure enough, Ayber went 2 for 4 and Baldelli had a 3-run homer plus a walk.
On to game 4...
The Sim likes Tampa Bay tonight in a potentially high-scoring game. The Rays won 1,084 of the 2,000 sim runs, projecting them to 54% favorites. The average score was 5.3-4.4.
Keys to the Game: The Sim does not see a great pitching performance tonight from either starting pitcher (Wakefield for the Red Sox, Sonnanstine for the Rays, both pictured), but it does give a slight edge to Sonnanstine here. The potential for things getting ugly is high for both staffs, however, and neither bullpen looks solid tonight unless they get it to the closers. Key leverage point... a strong night from either starter, particularly Wakefield.
Potential hitting stars tonight: None of the Red Sox shows high odds of a big night, though J.D. Drew shows as most likely. For the Rays, B.J. Upton projects to stay hot and make a key contribution, followed by Cliff Floyd and Carlos Pena.
Intangibles: Tim Wakefield's knuckle ball. It could baffle the Rays young guns, or it could be wild. If the former, the Red Sox have very strong odds of winning. If the latter, The Sim thinks Boston is dropping into a 3-1 hole.
Overall, The Sim now sees the Rays probability of winning the series at 76%.
- Dayne
Check out Imagine Sports’ NLCS and ALCS predictions on ESPN.com.
Comments
The Rays look nasty, like a team of destiny. Hopefully the knuckleball doesnt slow them down. Lets go Rays.
Posted by on 10/14 at 10:27 AMI like the odds the sim gives the Rays. Go Tampa Bay!
Posted by on 10/14 at 10:53 PMThe Sim was right again: high scoring game, BJ Upton and Pena, and got ugly for Sox staff. The “key leverage point” prediction today is much too obvious though. If an SP has a strong outing that is key in any baseball game. Like John Madden once said, “Whoever scores the most points is probably going to win this football game”.
Posted by on 10/15 at 12:38 AMThe Red Sox have the Rays right where they want them - down 3 games to one 
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