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October 10, 2008   |   By: Dayne Myers   |   Posted in: CEO Posts, Company News, Diamond Mind, Industry News, MLB Playoffs, SIM Analysis, SIM Stats, Tips

The Sim Likes Rays in Game 1, But Long Ball Good Spell Difference

Our Diamond Mind simulation is beginning to get some pub.  In addition to The Sim's article on projecting the NLCS and the ALCS, The Sim has gotten some props for its prescient prognostications on the Hardball Times website and a mention on, the website of the Boston Globe newspaper.  Nice work, Mr. Diamond Mind!

dicek.533_533 The Sim likes the Rays in the ALCS, but winning game one is critical, as the odds swing from 55.4% in favor of Tampa Bay to 61% in favor of Boston.  And, The Sim actually likes the Rays tonight with the same 55% probability.  In our 2,000 simulations of game 1, the Rays took 1112 of them, or 55.6%, almost exactly the same as the series overall.  The Sim also favors a relatively high-scoring game, but not necessarily a blow-out, with the Rays averaging 4.7 runs to Boston's 4.2. 

Keys to the GameDice-K (left) is the big leverage point.  The Sim projects him to have a rough game tonight.  Over the 2,000 sim runs, he posted an ERA of 4.76 in less than 6 innings pitched, with a high number of walks... and the Rays took advantage.  If Dice-K has his control and performs better than projected, the Red Sox should take game one.  The Sim likes James Shields to put in a solid start, likely going deep into the game, and the bullpen finishes it up. 

With the bats, The Sim sees Upton and/or Iwamura getting on base and scoring some runs, with the big hits and RBI most likely coming from Pena, Floyd and Longoria.  As we mentioned in our ALCS preview for ESPN, Gabe Gross shows up as possibly making a surprising contribution in the series, and this is one of the games where he shows odds of doing so.  For Boston, J.D. Drew and Noah Lowrie show up as most likely to get on base and score, with Ortiz and Youkilis most like to drive in some runs. 

Intangibles:  If you're looking for a leverage point here to get the Red Sox a win, it's the long ball - The Sim likes Shields to keep the Red Sox in check for the most part, maybe giving up one home run.  But our simulations of the whole series showed that for Boston to win its pitchers would need to avoid too many walks while its hitters may need to hit more homers than the Rays.  Tropicana Field is not a big HR park, but it does favor lefties slightly.  So, maybe a big shot from Big Papi or J.D. Drew?  Whoever does it, Boston might need the big bomb for a win tonight.


Check out Imagine Sports’ NCLS prediction on ESPN.

Want more detail on The Sim’s LDS predictions?  See the links below:


Phillies-Brewers Series (prediction, result)

Game 1 (prediction, result)

Game 2 (prediction, result)

Game 3 (prediction, result)

Game 4 (prediction, result)

Phillies Win Series 3-1 


Dodgers-Cubs Series (prediction, result)

Dodgers-Cubs Game 1 (prediction, result)

Dodgers-Cubs Game 2 (prediction, result)

Dodgers-Cubs Game 3 (prediction, result)

Dodgers Win Series 3-0



Angels-Red Sox Series (prediction, result)

Game 1 (prediction, result)

Game 2 (prediction, result)

Game 3 (prediction, result)

Game 4 (prediction, result)

Red Sox Win Series 3-1


Rays-White Sox Series (prediction, result)

Game 1 (prediction, result)

Game 2 (prediction, result)

Game 3 (prediction, result)

Game 4 (prediction, result)

Rays Win Series 3-1




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