October 25, 2008 | By: Dayne Myers | Posted in: CEO Posts, Company News, Diamond Mind, Industry News, MLB Playoffs, SIM Analysis, SIM Stats, Tips
re enough, each team committed an error that led to
an unearned run - Werth's bobble in the first led to one unearned run
for Tampa Bay, while Philly got an unearned run thanks to a Longoria
error in the 9th.
On to game 3 on Saturday night...
Our Diamond Mind Sim likes the Rays again, as they won 1279 of the 2,000 simulations of game 3, or 64%, about the same odds as game 2. On average, Tampa Bay outscored Philadelphia 5.1 to 3.7, which is a really large margin when it's an average of 2,000 sim runs, indicating rather good odds of a blow-out win for the Rays. When we then simulated the rest of the Series after a split in Tropicana Field, The Sim gives the Rays 70% odds of winning it all.
Keys to the Game: We projected Matt Garza (pictured) to give a strong performance in game 7 of the ALCS, and he came though in a major way. But The Sim doesn't see a repeat performance that good in game 3 of the World Series, but it does project Garza to have a solid game, averaging an ERA of 4.26 and typicalling going 6+ innings. He also does a bit better than Philly starter Jamie Moyer. The bigger difference, surprisingly, are the bullpens - The Tampa Bay bullpen projects to slam the door the rest of the way, while the Philly bullpen projects to have a bad night. So, look for a close game early on, then the Rays pull away late, and the bullpens look to be a key leverage point.
At the plate, BJ Upton again projects to provide the spark for the Rays, while Carlos Pena and Jason Bartlett project as most likely to have a big hit. For the Phils, nobody shows high odds of a big night, frankly, though Chase Utley is most likely, followed by Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard. does project to break out of his hitless-ness tonight.
Intangibles: Will the Philly Phans give the home team a lift? The Sim says they'll need it.: Will the Philly Phans give the home team a lift? The Sim says they'll need it.
The Sim Favors Rays in World Series Game 3, Pens Make the Difference
So, game 2 went as projected by the Diamond Mind simulation - it projected the Rays to win, most likely by more than a run, and that the key would be Shields out-pitching Myers. Shields pitched 5 and two-thirds of shutout ball, while Myers gave up 4 and took the loss. The Sim correctly projected Ryan Howard's good hitting (he was 2 for 4 with a double) as well as BJ Upton bouncing back to spark the Rays and score (Upton was 2 for 4, run, RBI), though Carlos Pena (0 for 3, RBI, walk) did not have the big night projected for him. Better still, The Sim projected defense to be an issue, projecting each team to give up an unearned run. Sure enough, each team committed an error that led to
an unearned run - Werth's bobble in the first led to one unearned run
for Tampa Bay, while Philly got an unearned run thanks to a Longoria
error in the 9th. On to game 3 on Saturday night...
Our Diamond Mind Sim likes the Rays again, as they won 1279 of the 2,000 simulations of game 3, or 64%, about the same odds as game 2. On average, Tampa Bay outscored Philadelphia 5.1 to 3.7, which is a really large margin when it's an average of 2,000 sim runs, indicating rather good odds of a blow-out win for the Rays. When we then simulated the rest of the Series after a split in Tropicana Field, The Sim gives the Rays 70% odds of winning it all.
Keys to the Game: We projected Matt Garza (pictured) to give a strong performance in game 7 of the ALCS, and he came though in a major way. But The Sim doesn't see a repeat performance that good in game 3 of the World Series, but it does project Garza to have a solid game, averaging an ERA of 4.26 and typicalling going 6+ innings. He also does a bit better than Philly starter Jamie Moyer. The bigger difference, surprisingly, are the bullpens - The Tampa Bay bullpen projects to slam the door the rest of the way, while the Philly bullpen projects to have a bad night. So, look for a close game early on, then the Rays pull away late, and the bullpens look to be a key leverage point.
At the plate, BJ Upton again projects to provide the spark for the Rays, while Carlos Pena and Jason Bartlett project as most likely to have a big hit. For the Phils, nobody shows high odds of a big night, frankly, though Chase Utley is most likely, followed by Jayson Werth and Ryan Howard. does project to break out of his hitless-ness tonight.
Intangibles: Will the Philly Phans give the home team a lift? The Sim says they'll need it.: Will the Philly Phans give the home team a lift? The Sim says they'll need it.
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Official Licensee, MLB Advanced Media, L.P.
Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with the permission of the MLB Advanced Media, L.P.
Major League Baseball Players Alumni Association trademarks and copyrights are used with the permission of the Major League Baseball Players Alumni Association and Major League Alumni Marketing, Inc.