Rays Projected to Close Out ALCS in 5, But Can BoSox Pull It Off Again?

Unfortunately for the Red Sox Nation, our Diamond Mind simulation's prediction that the Tampa hitters would handle Tim Wakefield's knuckleball and then hammer the bullpen turned out to be all-too-prescient.  The Rays hammered Wakefield even better than projected, while the bullpen imploded as projected, leading to a 13-4 Tampa Bay romp.  The Sim also accurately predicted the BJ Upton would continue to make key contributions (reached base 3 times, scored twice) as would Carlos Pena (2-run HR, 2 BB, 3 runs, 2 RBI).  The Sim is upset with me, however, because it projected Carl Crawford with good odds of a big game (he went 5 for 5), but I had a brain glitch and typed Cliff Floyd, who wasn't even in the line-up.  My apologies.  I'm only human.

OK, so on to game 5:  Are the Rays about to bury the Bosox, or do the defending champs still have life? 

Sim says... the Rays are likely to close this one out, especially if the game is not close.  While the Rays only won 53.8% of the simulation runs for game 5, the average margin was nearly a run - the Rays averaged 5.4 runs in our 2,000 simulations while the Sox averaged 4.5.  This indicates a good probability of a high-scoring game, with Boston having the edge if the game is low-scoring and/or close. 

Keys to the Game:  Tampa manager Joe Maddon has made an interesting decision to start Scott Kazmir (pictured) in game 5 rather than staying with the pitcher next up in the rotation, James Shields.  However, this may be a wise decision, as Kazmir has better stats on the road (4.10 ERA) than Shields (4.89), while Shields has better numbers at Tropicana Field (2.59 ERA compared to 2.90 for Kazmir).  So, Maddon appears to be looking at the numbers.  If the Rays lose game 5, they will have Shields for game 6 at home. 

The Sim, however, sees good odds that Kazmir will have a rough night.  Over the 2,000 sim runs, he had an ERA of 5.06 and only made it through 5 and a third innings, on average.  But Daisuke Matsuzaka doesn't project to be that much better, posting a 4.76 ERA in 5 and two-thirds innings.  The Rays' bullpen, however, outperforms the Boston pen, particularly the middle relief.  However, the late-inning pitchers for the Red Sox project well, further indicating that Boston may have the edge if the game is close. 

As for hitters, a number of Red Sox hitters show high odds of a big night - Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, and Noah Lowrie all averaged an OPS of .800 or better over the 2,000 sim runs, while Gabe Gross, Carlos Pena and Cliff Floyd did the same for Tampa Bay.  Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis showed the highest likelihood of getting on base and scoring for Boston, while Iwamura and Upton projected similar odds for the Rays.  Sleeper pick to be a star tonight is Jason Varitek.

Intangibles:  The Sim shows an extremely high number of unearned runs for the Rays, indicating that defense might be the difference tonight.  The Sim also sees the Red Sox possibly leaving a lot of runners on base.  So, key leverage points are Boston's defense and ability to get clutch hits, as well as the starting pitchers - given that The Sim does not see a strong night for either starter, if either does have a dominating night, that team is likely to win.

Odd for the series overall now... Though the Red Sox have climbed out of a hole like this before (they trailed Cleveland 3 games to 1 last year and won) and even tougher (like the '04 comeback from a 3-0 deficit against the Yankees), the Sim only gives Boston a 9% chance of winning the series now.

- Dayne

Check out Imagine Sports’ NLCS and ALCS predictions on ESPN.com.

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