A Playoff is Worth A Thousand Sims: Rays, Angels Predicted to Win ALDS
The 2008 American League playoffs include three teams who have won four of the previous six World Series – the AL West champion Los Angeles Angels, who won the 2002 World Series, the AL Central champion Chicago White Sox, who won the 2005 World Series, and the Boston Red Sox, who popped the champagne in 2004 and 2007. The big surprise addition who crashed the party was the Tampa Bay Rays, who went from a perennial bottom-dwellar to 97 wins to win the tough AL East. Can the banged-up Red Sox repeat without Manny? Will the Angels propser with Mark Texiera? Are the White Sox worn out from extra games at the end or do they have momentum? Are the young Rays ready for the spotlight of post-season play?
At the request of ESPN, we employed our Diamond Mind simulation software to project the results of the upcoming League Divisional Series. Before revealing our projected results for the ALDS, here is a brief recap of our methodology:
- We updated our projections and ratings for each player based on his 2008 regular season performance.
- Although playoff rosters were not yet finalized, we used our best judgment about whom would be selected, the starting rotations, the batting orders, and the bullpen and bench roles.
- We made judgments about players carrying an injury into the post-season. Beyond deciding, for purposes of setting these roles, whether or not a player would play, we did not attempt to simulate how such an injury might hamper the player, except to the extent already reflected in his regular season performance.
- We then simulated each series 1,000 times.
As un
predictable as the outcome of the regular season can be, luck can play
an even greater role in a short series. Nevertheless, the results of our
simulations project the Angels to handle the Re
d Sox, while the Rays are heavy
favorites to dispatch the White Sox, resulting in an ALCS in without any worries about chilly
weather. Neither AL series projects to be as close as the two
NLDS. The Angels already looked to be
favored, but Boston
has an even tougher hill to climb with so many injuries. In our simulations, the Angels won 574 times
out of 1,000 series runs:
| Winner/Games | LAA in 3 | LAA in 4 | LAA in 5 | BOS in 5 | BOS in 4 | BOS in 3 | Overall |
| LAA-BOS | 137 | 208 | 229 | 180 | 138 | 108 | 574-426 |
For our simulation runs, we assumed Josh Beckett would only start game 3,
J.D. Drew would be able to start all games, but Mike Lowell would be limited to
pinch-hitting duties. That’s quite a
difference from last season, when the Red Sox were fairly healthy for the
post-season… and had Manny Ramirez. It
shows. The Red Sox were able to average
4. 36 runs per game, but the Angels averaged 4.71. While our simulations show the Bosox getting
decent production from Drew, Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay,
the rest of the line-up failed to produce.
Particularly disappointing was David Ortiz – without Manny to protect
him, Papi managed only a .200 batting average against Angel pitching and an OPS
of just .761 – fine numbers for many hitters but disappointing for Ortiz. The credit goes to the L.A. staff, which posted a team ERA of 3.71
against the defending World Champs.
Still, expect the Champs to put up a fight before they go down – 409 of
the 
1,000 simulation runs had the series going the distance.
While the Angels appear likely to beat the Red Sox, the simulations show the Rays to be prohibitive favorites in the first playoff series of their history, beating the White Sox in 640 of the 1,000 simulation runs. That’s huge. In fact, the most frequent outcome was a sweep by Tampa Bay:
| Winner/Games | TAM in 3 | TAM in 4 | TAM in 5 | CHA in 5 | CHA in 4 | CHA in 3 | Overall |
| TAM-CHA | 224 | 193 | 223 | 120 | 178 | 82 | 640-360 |
It wasn’t difficult to see why the Rays won so many series – while scoring a reasonable 4.36 runs per game, Tampa held the ChiSox to just 3.6 runs per game. The Rays’ starting pitchers were the stars, with standout performances from Josh Shields (2.79 over the 1,000 sim runs), Matt Garza (2.84), and Scott Kazmir (3.00).
In a short series, especially one of only five games, the odds swing dramatically depending on who wins the first game. In the National League, we like the Dodgers and Phillies, but only if they win Game One. But in the American League, the simulations indicate that the Rays are still the favorites even if they lose the opener, and the Angels still have a good chance even if they blow Game One. So, we see this year’s ALCS being in the warm weather of Florida and Southern California, as the Los Angeles Angels tangle with the upstart Tampa Bay Rays.
Check out our LDS predictions on ESPN (ALDS, NLDS), or here:
Enjoy the playoffs, everyone!
- Dayne
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