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October 02, 2008   |   By: Dayne Myers   |   Posted in: CEO Posts, Company News, Diamond Mind, Industry News, MLB Playoffs, SIM Analysis, SIM Stats, Tips

Imagine Sports Simulation Opens 3-0, Accurately Calls Shots in MLB LDS

Predicting baseball games is a precarious business - even the bad teams win about 40 percent of the time.  That said, we knocked the ball out of the park on Wednesday! (see details below)  More importantly to us, however, is that our simulation is correctly projecting the underlying fundamentals.  As long as we continue to do that, we'll get the overall results right, just as we did last year when, for example, we predicted a close 7-game series win for the Red Sox over the Indians and the Rockies to handle the D'backs and then Boston to crush Colorado.  Still, it's hard to imagine being more accurate than we were yesterday.  While The Sim is cooking up today's projections, here is a game-by-game review of how it did yesterday:

Game 1:  Phillies vs. Brewerslogo_phi_79x76_79

Prediction: Walks would be key, especially with Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino, and that Cole Hamels would get the win. Phillies-Brewers Game 1

Reality: Sure enough, a 3-1 Phils win behind Hamels, and they had 6 walks, 3 from Howard and 2 from Victorino.


Galogo_la_79x76_79me 1:  Dodgers vs. Cubs

Prediction: Strong duel between Ryan Dempster and Derek Lowe and Dodgers would rough up Chicago’s bullpen.  Dodgers would take advantage of a number of walks (9), the Cubs would practically have none (1).  Big hit would decide game.  Dodgers-Cubs Game 1

Reality:  Lowe outlasted the Cubs’ Dempster, and the Dodgers got 4 hits and 3 runs off Chicago’s bullpen to put the game out of reach.  The Cubs staff gave up 8 walks (sim said 9), while the Dodgers staff served just 2 (sim said 1), and James Loney’s grand slam gave the Dodgers mojo.


Game 1:  Angels vs. Red Sox

Prediction:    1,000 sim games showed a virtual toss-up (501 vs. 499) yet indicated Red Sox would scorlogo_bos_79x76_79e more runs in Game 1.  David Ortiz would be a non-contributor in Game 1, while a strong outing by BoSox lefty Jon Lester would key Red Sox win.  Angels-Red Sox Game 1

Reality:  As predicted, this was a very tight game, and was 2-1 Boston heading into the 9th.  Ortiz was a non-factor going 0-4 before a 9th inning single provided an insurance run.  Lester pitched seven strong innings, giving up 6 hits and an unearned run while striking out 7. 

 

 

Want to know more?  Check out our LDS predictions on ESPN (ALDS, NLDS), or here:

NLDS

Phillies-Brewers NLDS

Phillies-Brewers Game 1

Phillies-Brewers Game 2

Dodgers-Cubs NLDS

Dodgers-Cubs Game 1

Dodgers-Cubs Game 2

ALDS

Angels-Red Sox ALDS

Angels-Red Sox Game 1

Rays-White Sox ALDS

Rays-White Sox Game 1

 

- Dayne