The Sim Calls Strong Outing for Lowe, But Will Dodgers Pen Hold?

The Diamond Mind Sim scores again on the dynamics of game 3 of the Los Angeles-Philadelphia series and this time also predicts the winner.  It said that Kuroda would come up big and that the Dodgers win when he does.  Kuroda pitched a great game, and the Dodgers won easily. 
 
Sim said Furcal was most likely to get on base and score.  He got on 3 times via 2 hits and a walk and scored 2 runs.
 
Sim said Manny and Ethier were most likely to have RBI.  Ethier came up empty, but Manny drove in 1. 
 
Sim said the Utley and Howard were the only Phillies likely to have a big night.  Utley had a double and a walk in 4 plate appearances, scoring a run, while Howard went 2 for 4 with a double and a run scored.  Nobody else contributed much.
 
So, what's in store for pivotal game 4? (The sim's a poet, don't ya know it?)

Derek Lowe (picture, above) is pitching on three-days' rest, but The Sim doesn't think it'll be a problem - the Dodgers won 1276 games out of 2,000 sim runs (64%,) outscoring the Phillies 5.0 to 3.6.  That indicates good potential for a big win.
 
When we run all of the remaining games with LA trailing 2 games to win, the Phillies are now only slight favorites, winning 53.7% of the sim runs.  But that depends on tonight's game - the winner will be come the favorite.
 
Keys to the Game:  The Sim thinks that Derek Lowe on 3-days' rest is better than a rested Joe Blanton (pictured, in A's hat).  In fact, The Sim projects that odds are good for Lowe giving his team a very strong 6 innings, while Blanton shows a high probability of getting rocked and likely won't last through the 5th inning.
 
HOWEVER... the Dodger pen projects as having a high risk of being shaky for this game.  So, your key leverage points are whether Lowe is able to do well on 3-days' rest and whether the LA pen holds it if he does.  If not, the Dodgers may have trouble tonight if they can't out-hit the Phils to win.
 
As for stars on offense, Furcal again projects to spark some run-scoring, while Manny projects as likely to have a big hit.  None of the Phillies project to have a big night again Lowe, though Burrell, Utley or Howard show a high probability of an extra-base hit. Looking for a surprise star?  Sim says it might be one of the catchers: Russ Martin and Carlos Ruiz come up with a big contribution in a higher-than-expected number of sim runs.
 
Intangibles:  Derek Lowe on 3-days' rest!  Can he do it?

- Dayne

Check out Imagine Sports’ NLCS and ALCS predictions on ESPN.com.

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