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October 09, 2008   |   By: Dayne Myers   |   Posted in: CEO Posts, Company News, Diamond Mind, Industry News, MLB Playoffs, SIM Analysis, SIM Stats, Tips

Mr. Sim Says Dodgers, Phillies Pens Will Likely Decide NLCS Game 1

Our Diamond Mind simulation is feeling its oats after correctly nailing the dynamics of just about every game of the first round of the playoffs.  When I pointed out that the Red Sox did not fall to the Angels (or is that "fallen Angels"...?), it pointed ologo_la_79x76_79ut that it did say that the odds would swing to Boston if it could win game one, and that depended on Jon Lester.  Sure enough, Lester pitlogo_phi_79x76_79ched a gem and led the Sox to a victory, then he pitched great in game 2, setting the table for the dramatic 9th inning win. The Sim then asked how my stock picks were doing.


Ok, on to the NLCS... The Sim correctly called the upset - the Dodgers did beat the Cubs, though it wasn't as close as The Sim thought it might be.  It also correctly projected Manny to have a big series and that the LA pitching staff would stifle the Cubbie bats.  The Sim also predicted that the Phillies would beat the Brewers, most likely in 4 games, and that also came to pass.  The Sim even predicted C.C. Sabathia's tough time in game 2.espn_logo_887

So now what?  In our forecast of the NLCS, The Sim likes the Dodgers again, as described in our piece for, giving LA a surprising 61.6% chance of taking the series, most likely in 6 and maybe in 5.  Game one, however, is critical if the Phillies are to have a shot, so they need Cole Hamels (pictured, below, right) to come up big.  hamels1_300

The Sim says he likely will do well, bdereklowe_512ut it doesn't see a stellar outing like he had in game one of the LDS.  The Sim sees game one as fairly evenly matched - we ran the Diamond Mind sim of game 1 for 2,000 times, and L.A. won 1017 while the Phils won 983... projecting to LA having only a 50.9% chance of winning game one.  The run differential was bigger than that spread might indicate, however, as the Dodgers averaged 4.4 runs to the Phillies' 4.0.  The difference?  The bullpens. 

Keys to the Game:  While Hamels and Derek Lowe (pictured, No. 23) project to a fairly even duel over 6 innings or so, the LA pen projects to hold the Phillies, while the Philadelphia bullpen struggles.  According to The Sim, the key difference maker is the Phillie bullpen - if it does well, the Phightin's are the favorite.  If not, things don't look good in this game or in the series as a whole.

Most likely hitting stars tonight?  None of the Phillies projected as more likely to have a big night, though Utley and Howard project as most likely.  On the Dodgers side, The Sim is expecting Manny to have a big series along with Rafael Furcal, but tonight is the game where they are most likely to be quiet.  Watch for Nomar - The Sim things he might make a key contribution. 

Intangibles:  Citizens Bank Park, location of tonight's game, favors the long ball.  The Sim likes the LA staff's chances of negating that in this series.  But if Lowe or his bullpen mates gives up a key bomb or two, the Phillies just might take this one.




Want more detail on Mr. Sim’s predictions in the LDS?  See the links below:


Phillies-Brewers Series (prediction, result)

Game 1 (prediction, result)

Game 2 (prediction, result)

Game 3 (prediction, result)

Game 4 (prediction, result)

Phillies Win Series 3-1 


Dodgers-Cubs Series (prediction, result)

Dodgers-Cubs Game 1 (prediction, result)

Dodgers-Cubs Game 2 (prediction, result)

Dodgers-Cubs Game 3 (prediction, result)

Dodgers Win Series 3-0



Angels-Red Sox Series (prediction, result)

Game 1 (prediction, result)

Game 2 (prediction, result)

Game 3 (prediction, result)

Game 4 (prediction, result)

Red Sox Win Series 3-1


Rays-White Sox Series (prediction, result)

Game 1 (prediction, result)

Game 2 (prediction, result)

Game 3 (prediction, result)

Game 4 (prediction, result)

Rays Win Series 3-1 



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“But if Lowe or his bullpen mates gives up a key bomb or two, the Phillies just might take this one. “

Nice ... can’t have asked for more than that huh, Dayne? And, as a Phillie Phan, may I say thank you very much.  grin

Posted by on 10/10 at 07:57 AM

Comment’s author: genneg08/19/07 05:44:00 PMTo 子青

我不過是做身為學長應該做的 妳是靠妳自己的努力拚出來的 我不過是

其實 我因手殘 很多實驗都不能做 不要逼迫其他人幫我做 就是只能
做一樣實驗 PCR ( . )這沒什麼了不起的:p

To A老大

我也是降想 只是旁邊的朋友都覺得我有本錢去把妹卻不努力時 那才會

前陣子 有小白在轟趴時爆料讓我跟某位妹間接告白 讓我公開拿好人
卡 現在已經是我們這裡台灣研究生圈子裡的大笑話 我只要在路上見到
認識的人都會被問一遍 很刺激吧 大家幹嘛這麼關心誰和誰亂搞瞎搞
啊 難道生活中沒有更重要的事了嗎 沒關係 就算被當笑話我也不在
乎 大家開心就好

這世界上 有很多事比把正妹重要多了 我要讓你們知道 我就算孤單

Posted by on 09/19 at 10:25 PM

Comment’s author: Holy08/13/07 04:21:00 AM老實說....我不知道是處男為什麼會讓人笑倒在地上

我沒跟台灣的留學生玩過真心話大冒險, 不過跟外國學生玩過類似的
他們也是問我類似的問題(看來全世界的人感興趣的事都一樣 XD , 我也
沒有人笑, 倒是有一個人說了一句話, 讓我們每個人都舉杯致敬....
有些東西是你曾經擁有, 而一旦失去的就永遠拿不回來, 處男女就是其

我一直覺得男生適合活在在冬天, 而女生適合活在在夏天
男生要穿的好看, 有時要襯衫和外套....夏天完全不行
喔....還有要注意鞋子....因為女生 至少外國女生 會注意男生的鞋子

Posted by on 10/11 at 07:13 PM