The Sim Says Phillies Move On, Red Sox, Angels Put Up Some Runs, White Sox Could Win Close One
Here are predictions from The Sim heading into today's LDS games:
BREWERS-PHILLIES, game 4:
The Brew Crew stayed alive with a 4-1 win in game 3 before the home
crowd. Can they do it again? The Sim doesn't think so, as the
Phillies win 543 of the 1,000 sim runs, scoring an average of 5.0 runs to the
Brewers 4.4. Still, Milwaukee
fans should not despair too much, as those are not overwhelming odds.
However, the Phillies' odds for advancing overall are 77.8%. And even if
the Brewers win today, they then need to beat Cole Hamels with C.C. Sabathia
again pitching on 3-days rest.
Keys to the Game: Neither starting pitcher (Joe Blanton for the Phils,
Jeff Suppan for the Brewers) projects as likely to have a strong outing.
In fact, both show enough of a likelihood of making an early exit that neither
team's fans should feel confident going into this game.
Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth project as most likely to be offensive stars for
Philly, while Ryan Braun projects as possibly breaking out of his post-season
doldrums. All in all, walks appear to be the difference, as the Phillies
project to get a lot more baserunners in this game.
Intangibles: As with the Angels-Red Sox game today, both starters project
as possibly having a rough day. So, if one of the teams gets a strong
outing from its starter, it's a huge advantage.
RED SOX vs. ANGELS, game 3:
J.D. Drew's game-winning homer has put the Angels on the brink of elimination
after a 100-win season. Will it happen, or do they start climbing out of
a hole that only one team (the '01 Yankees) has ever done – coming back
from a 2-0 deficit in a 5-game series?
The Sim says: "Don't bet on it". After 1,000 runs of our
Diamond Mind simulation for game 3, the Red Sox have a 55.8% chance of wrapping
it up today, and the victory in game 2 increases the probablility of Boston
winning the series overall to 92%, up from 67% after winning game one.
However, the game projects to be very close.
For today's game, much depends on the health of Josh Beckett, and The Sim shows
a high likelihood that he might have a rough outing. However, Angels'
starter Saunders projects to get roughed up as well, as The Sim sees a
high-scoring game. Boston averaged 5.1
runs per game in our sim runs, while L.A.
averaged 5.0. That's the highest run total of any game in the post-season
thus far.
Keys to the Game: Given that The Sim sees a high-scoring affair, a strong
performance by one of the starting pitchers could make a big difference and
projects a much higher chance of victory for the team that gets it.
Another key issue is the bullpen – The Sim sees a good chance that the Angel
bullpen falters tonight, and that could be the difference if the starting
pitchers perform as projected. The Angels' staff projects to give up far
more walks than the Red Sox pitchers do, while the number of hits is roughly
the same.
As for likely hitting stars, J.D. Drew projects to continue to be red-hot for
the Bosox, while The Sim sees Mark Teixeira, yet again, as the Angel most
likely to have a big night.
Intangibles: Josh Beckett always seems to come up big in the
post-season. Can he do it again?
RAYS-WHITE SOX, Game 3:
As predicted by The Sim, the Rays took the first two games of this series and
have a decent chance of a sweep. Today, however, is the Chisox best shot
at a win, as they were able to win 480 out of the 1,000 sim runs. The run
differential, however, is rather large, given that the Rays only won 52% of the
sim runs – Tampa
averaged 4.3 runs to 3.7 for the White Sox. That may mean that Chicago's odds are worse
that it appears – they win a lot of one-run games in the sim runs.
Even if they don't close it out today, The Sim says it's just a matter of
time. The Rays now projects as 93.6% likely of moving on to the ALCS.
Keys to the Game: The starting pitchers, John Danks for the White Sox and
Matt Garza for the Rays, project as fairly even in their sim
performances. The difference is in the bullpen – the White Sox bullpen
shows good odds of failing unless they can get it to the ninth inning and turn
it over to Bobby Jenks. The Rays project to out-hit the White Sox, and
the key to victory may be runners left on base – when the Rays get the clutch
hits, they win, often big. So, The Sim says to watch the Rays' LOB totals
if you want an indication on this one.
The Sim says that no hitter has a big probability of a stand-out night, but Ken
Griffey, Jr. might be the one for the Chisox. B.J. Upton and Evan
Longoria seem most likely to be the hitting stars of the Rays, though a number
of players appear to contribute to the victory as they project to have a number
of hits. The question will be who delivers the clutch hits.
Intangibles: Clutch hits! Will the Rays come through?
Still not sure about The Sim? See how we did in Tuesday's and Wednesday’s games.
Want to know more? Check out our LDS predictions on ESPN (ALDS, NLDS), or here:
NLDS
ALDS
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