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October 05, 2008   |   By: Dayne Myers   |   Posted in: CEO Posts, Company News, Diamond Mind, Industry News, MLB Playoffs, SIM Analysis, SIM Stats, Tips

The Sim Says Phillies Move On, Red Sox, Angels Put Up Some Runs, White Sox Could Win Close One

Here are predictions from The Sim heading into today's LDS games:

BREWERS-PHILLIES, game 4:

The Brew Crew stayed alive with a 4-1 win in game 3 before the home crowd.  Can they do it again?  The Sim doesn't think so, as the Phillies win 543 of the 1,000 sim runs, scoring an average of 5.0 runs to the Brewers 4.4.  Still, Milwaukee fans should not despair too much, as those are not overwhelming odds.  However, the Phillies' odds for advancing overall are 77.8%.  And even if the Brewers win today, they then need to beat Cole Hamels with C.C. Sabathia again pitching on 3-days rest.

Keys to the Game:  Neither starting pitcher (Joe Blanton for the Phils, Jeff Suppan for the Brewers) projects as likely to have a strong outing.  In fact, both show enough of a likelihood of making an early exit that neither team's fans should feel confident going into this game. 

Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth project as most likely to be offensive stars for Philly, while Ryan Braun projects as possibly breaking out of his post-season doldrums.  All in all, walks appear to be the difference, as the Phillies project to get a lot more baserunners in this game.

Intangibles:  As with the Angels-Red Sox game today, both starters project as possibly having a rough day.  So, if one of the teams gets a strong outing from its starter, it's a huge advantage.



RED SOX vs. ANGELS, game 3:

J.D. Drew's game-winning homer has put the Angels on the brink of elimination after a 100-win season.  Will it happen, or do they start climbing out of a hole that only one team (the '01 Yankees) has  ever done – coming back from a 2-0 deficit in a 5-game series?

The Sim says: "Don't bet on it".  After 1,000 runs of our Diamond Mind simulation for game 3, the Red Sox have a 55.8% chance of wrapping it up today, and the victory in game 2 increases the probablility of Boston winning the series overall to 92%, up from 67% after winning game one.  However, the game projects to be very close.

For today's game, much depends on the health of Josh Beckett, and The Sim shows a high likelihood that he might have a rough outing.  However, Angels' starter Saunders projects to get roughed up as well, as The Sim sees a high-scoring game.  Boston averaged 5.1 runs per game in our sim runs, while L.A. averaged 5.0.  That's the highest run total of any game in the post-season thus far.

Keys to the Game:  Given that The Sim sees a high-scoring affair, a strong performance by one of the starting pitchers could make a big difference and projects a much higher chance of victory for the team that gets it.  Another key issue is the bullpen – The Sim sees a good chance that the Angel bullpen falters tonight, and that could be the difference if the starting pitchers perform as projected.  The Angels' staff projects to give up far more walks than the Red Sox pitchers do, while the number of hits is roughly the same.

As for likely hitting stars, J.D. Drew projects to continue to be red-hot for the Bosox, while The Sim sees Mark Teixeira, yet again, as the Angel most likely to have a big night.

Intangibles:  Josh Beckett always seems to come up big in the post-season.  Can he do it again? 


RAYS-WHITE SOX, Game 3:

As predicted by The Sim, the Rays took the first two games of this series and have a decent chance of a sweep.  Today, however, is the Chisox best shot at a win, as they were able to win 480 out of the 1,000 sim runs.  The run differential, however, is rather large, given that the Rays only won 52% of the sim runs – Tampa averaged 4.3 runs to 3.7 for the White Sox.  That may mean that Chicago's odds are worse that it appears – they win a lot of one-run games in the sim runs.

Even if they don't close it out today, The Sim says it's just a matter of time.  The Rays now projects as 93.6% likely of moving on to the ALCS.

Keys to the Game:  The starting pitchers, John Danks for the White Sox and Matt Garza for the Rays, project as fairly even in their sim performances.  The difference is in the bullpen – the White Sox bullpen shows good odds of failing unless they can get it to the ninth inning and turn it over to Bobby Jenks.  The Rays project to out-hit the White Sox, and the key to victory may be runners left on base – when the Rays get the clutch hits, they win, often big.  So, The Sim says to watch the Rays' LOB totals if you want an indication on this one.

The Sim says that no hitter has a big probability of a stand-out night, but Ken Griffey, Jr. might be the one for the Chisox.  B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria seem most likely to be the hitting stars of the Rays, though a number of players appear to contribute to the victory as they project to have a number of hits.  The question will be who delivers the clutch hits.

Intangibles:  Clutch hits!  Will the Rays come through?

 

Still not sure about The Sim?  See how we did in Tuesday's and Wednesday’s games.

Want to know more?  Check out our LDS predictions on ESPN (ALDS, NLDS), or here:

NLDS

Phillies-Brewers NLDS

Phillies-Brewers Game 1

Phillies-Brewers Game 2

Phillies-Brewers Game 3

 

Dodgers-Cubs NLDS

Dodgers-Cubs Game 1

Dodgers-Cubs Game 2

Dodgers-Cubs Game 3

ALDS

Angels-Red Sox ALDS

Angels-Red Sox Game 1

Angels-Red Sox Game 2

Angels-Red Sox Game 3

 

Rays-White Sox ALDS

Rays-White Sox Game 1

Rays-White Sox Game 2

Rays-White Sox Game 3

 

 

 

 

 


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I was happy to hear our fans gave him a standing ovtaion for the first game. I was at the second game as well. I stood up and cheered for him. It was good to see him back in the Trop again. If he’s going to be the enemy at least he’s not wearing a Phillie or Yankee uniform. Ugh P.S. I was definitely not rooting for Boston. Just trying to help out someone who helped make the Rays who they are today.

Posted by on 08/06 at 06:10 AM

I was happy to hear our fans gave him a standing ovtaion for the first game. I was at the second game as well. I stood up and cheered for him. It was good to see him back in the Trop again. If he’s going to be the enemy at least he’s not wearing a Phillie or Yankee uniform. Ugh P.S. I was definitely not rooting for Boston. Just trying to help out someone who helped make the Rays who they are today.

Posted by on 08/06 at 06:11 AM

Comment’s author: amax08/19/07 07:04:00 AM一個人其實也很好… 真的
如果是現在的我來選 我可能會選擇單身吧… 哈

有沒有女伴重不重要 看你囉
不大想要的話 沒有女伴還比較環保呢 省得去做傻事 ... 幹嘛硬要配
合他人的眼光跟觀念硬要找一個呢
但如果真的想要的話 打死也還是想辦法找一個吧…

把妹其實跟做生意有點像
有時候把不到妹不是人好不好的問題
而是供需的問題
如果都找那種條件不錯 可是就是對你的優點不會動心的那一型正妹 就
註定了在愛情路上一路吃苦碰釘子的命運…

有人認為愛情就是要找自己最喜歡的 多奮鬥二十年也值得啊
另外一個策略就是屈服現實 降低標準 找一個自己目前追得到的對象
吧… 嘿嘿

Posted by on 10/11 at 07:29 PM