The Sim Heavily Favors Rays in Game 1 over White Sox, But Intangibles Loom
Of all the playoff teams, the Tampa Bay Rays project as our heaviest favorite to
win its series and the most likely to sweep by far, and game one
projects the same way. Out of 1,000 simulation runs of game 1, the
Rays won 639 games to the just 361 for the Chicago White Sox. Tampa Bay
averaged 4.2 runs in our simulations, compared to just 3.3 for
Chicago.
This projects to be a relatively low-scoring game, with both
starters (James Shields for the Rays, Javier Vasquez for the Chisox)
doing well... but The Sim sees the Tampa starting pitchers as being the
stars of the series, starting with Shields today. If Chicago is to get
to Shields, The Sim thinks that Juan Uribe and Paul Konerko are the
ones most likely to provide the big hits. 
Keys to the Game: James Shields (pictured throwing a punch). If he's got his stuff tonight, The Sim thinks it's practically a lock for Tampa.
Intangibles: One factor The Sim can't capture are the intangibles of
Tampa's youth and playoff inexperience as well as the possibility of
some fatigue for Chicago - they played pressure-packed games on Monday
and Tuesday while Tampa rested. If the Rays are nervous, especially Shields, it could be a big factor.
- Dayne
Not sure about The Sim? See how we did in Tuesday's games.
Want to know more? Check out our LDS predictions on ESPN (ALDS, NLDS), or here:
NLDS
ALDS
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