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October 02, 2008   |   By: Dayne Myers   |   Posted in: CEO Posts, Company News, Diamond Mind, Industry News, MLB Playoffs, SIM Analysis, SIM Stats, Tips

The Sim Heavily Favors Rays in Game 1 over White Sox, But Intangibles Loom

logo_tb_79x76_79Of all the playoff teams, the Tampa Bay Rays project as our heaviest favorite to win its series and the most likely to sweep by far, and game one projects the same way.  Out of 1,000 simulation runs of game 1, the Rays won 639 games to the just 361 for the Chicago White Sox.  Tampa Bay averaged 4.2 runs in our simulations, compared to just 3.3 for Chicago. 
jamesshieldsswingsandmisses_285
This projects to be a relatively low-scoring game, with both starters (James Shields for the Rays, Javier Vasquez for the Chisox) doing well... but The Sim sees the Tampa starting pitchers as being the stars of the series, starting with Shields today.  If Chicago is to get to Shields, The Sim thinks that Juan Uribe and Paul Konerko are the ones most likely to provide the big hits. logo_cws_79x76_79  

Keys to the Game James Shields (pictured throwing a punch).  If he's got his stuff tonight, The Sim thinks it's practically a lock for Tampa.

Intangibles:  One factor The Sim can't capture are the intangibles of Tampa's youth and playoff inexperience as well as the possibility of some fatigue for Chicago - they played pressure-packed games on Monday and Tuesday while Tampa rested. If the Rays are nervous, especially Shields, it could be a big factor. 

- Dayne

Not sure about The Sim?  See how we did in Tuesday's games.

Want to know more?  Check out our LDS predictions on ESPN (ALDS, NLDS), or here:

NLDS

Phillies-Brewers NLDS

Phillies-Brewers Game 1

Phillies-Brewers Game 2

Dodgers-Cubs NLDS

Dodgers-Cubs Game 1

Dodgers-Cubs Game 2

ALDS

Angels-Red Sox ALDS

Angels-Red Sox Game 1

Rays-White Sox ALDS

 


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