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October 10, 2008   |   By: Dayne Myers   |   Posted in: CEO Posts, Company News, Diamond Mind, Industry News, MLB Playoffs, SIM Analysis, SIM Stats, Tips

Tampa Owns Edge Over Boston, But Game 1 Critical

Last week, we ran our Diamond Mind simulation on behalf of ESPN and predicted that the Tampa Bay Rays would easily defeat the Chicago White Sox, most likely in three or four games, and that the Los Angeles Angels would upend the defending World Champion Boston Red Sox … though that prediction came with the stipulalogo_tb_79x76_79tion that logo_bos_79x76_79he odds would swing in favor of Boston if the Red Sox could pull off a game one victory.  In fact, the simulations showed that Boston’s odds of winning the series inceased from only 42.6% to 67% if they won the opening game – and that Jon Lester would be key factor in whether they did.  Sure enough, the Rays did polish off the White Sox in short order, and the Red Sox rode Lester’s stellar pitching to a game one victory and went on to take the series from the Angels.

 

Our simulations projected that Boston would be led by J.D. Drew, Kevin Youkilis, and Jason Bay, while David Ortiz was likely to struggle.  Ortiz did have a rough series, and though Youkilis had a poor series at the plate, Drew (.286, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .857 OPS) and Bay (.412, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1.356 OPS) certainly came through as we projected, being the heroes of the series on offense.  Bay’s two-run shot put the Bosox up for good in game one, while Drew’s two-run dinger in the ninth inning won game two… then Bay doubled and scored the winning run in game four! 

 

For the Chicago-Tampa Bay series, the Diamond Mind simulations projected the Rays as prohibitive favorites, led by their young pitching staff, particularly the starting rotation.  The Rays’ pitchers made us look good – we projected that the White Sox would espn_logo_887average 3.6 runs per game, and Tampa pitchers held Chicago to 3.3 runs per game and a team batting average of just .236.  The Rays’ hitters did nearly a run better than we projected, however.  While we did project Evan Longoria to come up big, which he did (1.020 OPS, 2 hr, 3 RBI), B.J. Upton greatly exceeded projections with his 3 homers and 4 RBI.

 

So, what does our Diamond Mind simulation project for the American League Championship Series? 

Before revealing our projected results for the ALCS, here is a brief recap of our methodology:  

  • We updated our projections and ratings for each player based on his 2008 regular season performance.
  • Although playoff rosters were not yet finalized, we used our best judgment about whom would be selected, the starting rotations, the batting orders, and the bullpen and bench roles.
  • We made judgments about players carrying an injury into the post-season.  Beyond deciding, for purposes of setting these roles, whether or not a player would play, we did not attempt to simulate how such an injury might hamper the player, except to the extent already reflected in his regular season performance.
  • We then simulated the series 2,000 times.

As unpredictable as the outcome of the regular season can be, luck can play an even greater role in a short series.  Nevertheless, the results of our Diamond Mind software showed Tampa Bay winning 1,107 of the 2,000 simulations runs, which equates to 55.4% probability.  This series looks to be a higher scoring one than we project for the NLCS – the Rays averaged 4.7 runs per game in our simulations while the Red Sox average 4.3 runs per game.  The table below shows the number of times out of the 2,000 simulations that each team wins: 

Winner/Games

TAM in 4

TAM in 5

TAM in 6

TAM in 7

BOS in 7

BOS in 6

BOS in 5

BOS in 4

Overall

TAM-BOS

145

263

371

328

282

291

226

94

1107-893

Interestingly, the most likely scenario is that the series goes six games, not seven, regardless of which team wins.  

The difference?  The Rays look like they’ll have a slight edge on the mound.  While Boston’s bullpen generally outperformed Tampa’s in our simulations, the Rays’ young starters did much better than the Red Sox rotation.  Tampa projecvaritek_431ted to get overall strong performances from Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza.  With the exception of Jon Lester, however, the Red Sox starters struggled:  Josh Beckett, who is hampered by injury, posted an ERA of 4.50 for the simulations runs, and it got worse from there… Dice-K had an ERA of 5.06, and he’s the starting pitcher for the critical first game. 

As for the hitters, Boston actually out-hit Tampa, posting a slightly higher batting average and hitting significantly more home runs.  Tampa’s edge, however, came from getting more baserunners – the Rays walked more, and OBP is a big key to scoring runs.  Tampa’s line-up projects to share the load more evenly than Boston’s, in fact.  B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria led the Rays in getting on base (each averaged and OBP of .346 for the simuations) and scored the most runs, while Cliff Floyd provided the most power (.500 slugging average) and led the team in RBI along with Carlos Pena, who provided a high number of clutch hits. 

Boston was paced by Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, who posted the best overall numbers of either team.  Pedroia, who had been slumping before a big hit in game 4 of the ALDS, led both teams in hits while posting an OPS of .846, showing he’s ready to break out of the slump.  Youkilis, who also had a rough ALDS, led Boston in RBI and runs scored and posted an OPS of .860, best of either team.  J.D. Drew also chipped in with an OPS of .789 and some clutch home runs in some of the simulations.   Other than some decent but unnavarro_512spectacular numbers from Jason Bay, however, the rest of the Boston line-up does not contribute much, though David Ortiz does project to contribute a bit more than he did in the ALDS. 

Looking for a surprise star… another David Eckstein, perhaps?  The simulations say you might want to keep an eye on the catchers.  Boston’s Jason Varitek (pictured at left) who only mustered 3 singles over the course of the ALDS, hit a surprising number of big home runs in the simulations, and Dioner Navarro (pictured, right) stayed hot and led the Tampa starters in batting average and had a fair number of clutch hits in the 2,000 simulation runs, usually doubles.  And if you really want a rabbit pulled out of the hat, the simulations showed surprising contributions from Alex Cora for Boston and Gabe Gross for Tampa coming off the bench.

However, before you go putting your money on the Rays, one humongous caveat…

As we noted in our division series previews, the odds can swing dramatically in favor of the winner of Game One of a short series.  In fact, the winner of first game went on to win every series in the 2007 playoffs, and the same is true so far in 2008.  If the Red Sox win game one, watch out – the odds swing heavily in their favor, as was true of Boston’s series with the Angels. When the Red Sox win game one, they go on to win the series 1220 times, or 61%.  And this points to a key leverage point – if the Boston starting pitchers, particularly Matsuzaka and Beckett, perform better than the simulations project, Boston is likely to take game one and the series.  That’s more likely to happen if they can keep the Tampa hitters off the basepaths.  So, a key indicator of this series will be Tampa’s team on-base percentage and the control of the Boston pitchers.  Another key leverage point you might watch are the home runs – our simulations show that Boston may need to out-homer the Rays to win.  That said, we still see the upstart Tampa Bay Rays continuing their Cinderella season and advancing to their first World Series ever… but they better win that first game.

 -Dayne

Check out Imagine Sports’ NCLS prediction on ESPN.

Want more detail on The Sim’s LDS predictions?  See the links below:

NLDS

Phillies-Brewers Series (prediction, result)

Game 1 (prediction, result)

Game 2 (prediction, result)

Game 3 (prediction, result)

Game 4 (prediction, result)

Phillies Win Series 3-1 

 

Dodgers-Cubs Series (prediction, result)

Dodgers-Cubs Game 1 (prediction, result)

Dodgers-Cubs Game 2 (prediction, result)

Dodgers-Cubs Game 3 (prediction, result)

Dodgers Win Series 3-0

 

ALDS

Angels-Red Sox Series (prediction, result)

Game 1 (prediction, result)

Game 2 (prediction, result)

Game 3 (prediction, result)

Game 4 (prediction, result)

Red Sox Win Series 3-1

 

Rays-White Sox Series (prediction, result)

Game 1 (prediction, result)

Game 2 (prediction, result)

Game 3 (prediction, result)

Game 4 (prediction, result)

Rays Win Series 3-1

 

 


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