October 06, 2008 | By: Dayne Myers | Posted in: CEO Posts, Company News, Diamond Mind, Industry News, MLB Playoffs, SIM Analysis, SIM Stats, Tips

The Sim, Now 'Mr. Sim,' Continues Hot Streak

RED SOX vs. ANGELS, game 3:

Well, The Sim did not get the winner right for this game, but it got the game dynamics right on. And, in its defense, we did not know J.D. Drew would be scratched from the line-up when we ran the simulations and, in fact, he was the biggest run producer in the BoSox line-up in those sims. Given that the game went 12 innings, The Sim is feeling comfortable with its call - J.D. might've made the difference had he been in the line-up, Sim says.

Over the 1,000 sims of the game, Boston averaged 5.1 runs and actually scored 4, while L.A. averaged 5.0 and scored... 5.0. It also predicted that both teams starters would get roughed up a bit, and that happened - Beckett, while gutsy, gave up 4 runs and 9 hits in just 5 innings, while Saunders gave up 4 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks in 4 and two-thirds, both sporting ERAs over 7 for the game. The Sim also called it that Angel pitchers would give up a lot of walks (9), but they gave up fewer hits than projected... and that was a key factor.

While Drew was not in the line-up, Mark Teixeira did have another nice night (2 for 6, 1 BB) but did leave 5 runners on base. I wnet back to check the sim runs to see how many of them had Mike Napoli hitting 2 dingers. He actually did that in 32 of the 1,000 simulations we did of game 3. Go figure.

BREWERS-PHILLIES, game 4:

Before the playoffs started, The Sim projected the Phillies to win it, most likely in four games. Sure enough, the Fightin's did just that, scoring 6 runs (the Sim projected 5). The Sim also correctly projected Jeff Suppan's troubles, though it didn't see Joe Blanton's stellar start coming. Way to go, Joe. The Sim also projected either Ryan Howard or Jayson Werth as most likely to be offensive stars for Philly. Werth homered, but Howard only managed a walk. Pat Burrell finally broke through with a big game, something The Sim had projected for previous games in this series but, oddly enough, not this one. Baseball is fickle mistress. The Sim correctly predicted that Ryan Braun might break out of his post-season doldrums, as he had a pair of hits and an rbi. However, The Sim saw getting on base, particularly via walks, as being the Philly edge when, in fact, it was the long ball. That said, we'll take credit for this one:

"Intangibles: As with the Angels-Red Sox game today, both starters project as possibly having a rough day. So, if one of the teams gets a strong outing from its starter, it's a huge advantage."

Joe Blanton provided just that. And it was huge, because game 5 would've meant facing C.C. Sabathia again, not to mention using Cole Hamels. Now, Hamels is ready to start game one against the Dodgers.

RAYS-WHITE SOX, Game 3:

The Sim said that today is Chicago's best shot at a win in this series, and they got it. It also said that if Chicago won, it would likely be close, and it was (5-3). Matt Garza did not perform as well as projected, and that was huge. The Sim also made some nice picks for stars of the game, as Junior Griffey went 2 for 2 plus a walk and BJ Upton

The Sim also scored on a couple of analyses:

"The difference is in the bullpen – the White Sox bullpen shows good odds of failing unless they can get it to the ninth inning and turn it over to Bobby Jenks."

They did get it to Jenks, and he closed it out.

And how about this one:

"The Rays project to out-hit the White Sox, and the key to victory may be runners left on base – when the Rays get the clutch hits, they win, often big. So, The Sim says to watch the Rays' LOB totals if you want an indication on this one."

The Rays did indeed have more hits, and they left 9 on base, compared to 5 for the Chisox.

"Intangibles: Clutch hits! Will the Rays come through?"

Um, nope.