Imagine Sports Sim: Phillies Dominate Brewers in Game 1
We just finished 1,000 runs of the Game 1 of the Phillies-Brewers NLDS using our Diamond Mind simulation.
The results?
The Phillies won 676
times out of 1,000, scoring an average of 5.4 runs compared to 4.0 for
the Brewers. Getting on base was the key for Philadelphia, not the
power that you might expect for a game in Citizens Bank Park. Shane
Victorino and Ryan Howard each had an average OBP of .500 for the sim
runs, while the Phillies had a team OBP of .357. Cole Hamels does
control the Brewers, while the Milwaukee staff gives up a lot of walks
in our projections.
Of course, predicting any single game is a crap shoot in baseball, but we like the Phillies in game one and to take the Series.
POST-GAME UPDATE: So how'd we do? Nailed it.
We said that walks would be the key, especially likely from Howard and Victorino, and that Hamels would get the win.
Sure enough, a 3-1 Phils win behind Hamels, and they had 6 walks, 3 from Howard and 2 from Victorino.
So, the Phillies get 3 runs on just 4 hits, only one being for extra bases (a double by Utley).
Sabermetrics wins game one!
Check out our other predictions here:
- Dayne
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