Mr. Sim Sees Rays Closing It Out in Game 4; Watch Pena, Longoria
RAYS-WHITE SOX, Game 4:
Our Diamond Mind simulation said that game 3
was the White Sox
best chance to come up with a win, and they did. Today, however, The Sim
thinks the Rays have a good chance of closing it out. To get even more
precise, we've started running each game 2,000 times, and the Rays won 1186 of
those games, indicating a 59.3% chance of winning game 4. Tampa averaged 5.4 runs
per game, which is high for an average score, compared to just 4.3 for the
Chisox. Despite losing game 3, The Sim still gives the Rays an 84% of
winning the series and advancing to the ALCS.
Keys to the Game: The Sim sees good odds for the Rays scoring a lot of
runs, and a higher-than-normal odds of the long ball playing a part in
that. If you're looking for hitting stars, Carlos Pena projects as most likely to go
yard, with a 14.2% chance of doing so, while Evan Longoria projects as having an 11.1%
chance. Longoria and Pena both project as having a 1.5% chance of hitting
more than 1 home run today, tops for either team. Longoria also projects
as having a 13.6% chance of having more than one hit. Most likely to have
a multi-hit day, however, is Akinori
Iwamura, with an 18% chance, and Carl Crawford having a 15.3% chance.
For Chicago, Jermaine
Dye looks like the he has the best chance for a big day,
projecting as the Chicago
player most likely to hit a homer (11.3% chance) and have a multi-hit day
(16.1%). Dewayne Wise has a 14.6% projection for
having more than one hit.
On the pitching side, the bullpens project to be fairly even today. It's
the starting pitching where the The Sim favors the Rays, as it sees Sonnanstine
outpitching Floyd and lasting about an inning longer.
Intangibles: The White Sox have played well in elimination games lately,
and they've faced four - the final two day of the season and then again in the
playoff vs. Minnesota and
yesterday in the ALDS. Can they keep it up? The Sim says the odds
are against it, but we'll see.
Still not sure about The Sim? See how we’ve predicted games on Tuesday and Wednesday and over the weekend (Saturday, Sunday).
Want to know more? Check out our LDS predictions on ESPN (ALDS, NLDS), or here:
NLDS
Phillies Win Series 3-1
Dodgers Win Series 3-0
ALDS
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