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October 06, 2008   |   By: Dayne Myers   |   Posted in: CEO Posts, Company News, Diamond Mind, Industry News, MLB Playoffs, SIM Analysis, SIM Stats, Tips

Mr. Sim Sees Rays Closing It Out in Game 4; Watch Pena, Longoria

RAYS-WHITE SOX, Game 4:

Our Diamond Mind simulation said that game 3 was the White Sox best chance to come up with a win, and they did.  Today, however, The Sim thinks the Rays have a good chance of closing it out.  To get even more precise, we've started running each game 2,000 times, and the Rays won 1186 of those games, indicating a 59.3% chance of winning game 4.  Tampa averaged 5.4 runs per game, which is high for an average score, compared to just 4.3 for the Chisox.  Despite losing game 3, The Sim still gives the Rays an 84% of winning the series and advancing to the ALCS

Keys to the Game:  The Sim sees good odds for the Rays scoring a lot of runs, and a higher-than-normal odds of the long ball playing a part in that.  If you're looking for hitting stars, Carlos Pena projects as most likely to go yard, with a 14.2% chance of doing so, while Evan Longoria projects as having an 11.1% chance.  Longoria and Pena both project as having a 1.5% chance of hitting more than 1 home run today, tops for either team.  Longoria also projects as having a 13.6% chance of having more than one hit.  Most likely to have a multi-hit day, however, is Akinori Iwamura, with an 18% chance, and Carl Crawford having a 15.3% chance.

For Chicago, Jermaine Dye looks like the he has the best chance for a big day, projecting as the Chicago player most likely to hit a homer (11.3% chance) and have a multi-hit day (16.1%).  Dewayne Wise has a 14.6% projection for having more than one hit.

On the pitching side, the bullpens project to be fairly even today.  It's the starting pitching where the The Sim favors the Rays, as it sees Sonnanstine outpitching Floyd and lasting about an inning longer.

Intangibles:  The White Sox have played well in elimination games lately, and they've faced four - the final two day of the season and then again in the playoff vs. Minnesota and yesterday in the ALDS.  Can they keep it up?  The Sim says the odds are against it, but we'll see. 

 

Still not sure about The Sim?  See how we’ve predicted games on Tuesday and Wednesday and over the weekend (Saturday, Sunday).

Want to know more?  Check out our LDS predictions on ESPN (ALDS, NLDS), or here:

NLDS

Phillies-Brewers NLDS

Phillies-Brewers Game 1

Phillies-Brewers Game 2

Phillies-Brewers Game 3

Phillies-Brewers Game 4

Phillies Win Series 3-1 

 

Dodgers-Cubs NLDS

Dodgers-Cubs Game 1

Dodgers-Cubs Game 2

Dodgers-Cubs Game 3

Dodgers Win Series 3-0

ALDS

Angels-Red Sox ALDS

Angels-Red Sox Game 1

Angels-Red Sox Game 2

Angels-Red Sox Game 3

 

Rays-White Sox ALDS

Rays-White Sox Game 1

Rays-White Sox Game 2

Rays-White Sox Game 3


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