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October 03, 2008   |   By: Dayne Myers   |   Posted in: CEO Posts, Company News, Diamond Mind, Industry News, MLB Playoffs, SIM Analysis, SIM Stats, Tips

The Sim Says Starters Solid, Pens Shakey in Game 2 of Angels-Red Sox ALDS


Game one of this series went just as The Sim predicted - a toss-up about as even as can be, with Boston starter Jon Lester being the key to a Red Sox victory and David Ortiz not being a factor.  Diamond Mind got that right.  So, what does The Sim cook up for game two?  This time, not so even - the Los Angeles Angels won 553 games out of 1,000 sim runs, outscoring the Red Sox 4.1 to 3.8.  ervinsantana_275

Keys to the Game:  Can you say Ervin Santana?  Sure you can.  The Sim shows him as having high odds of a great outing, averaging a 2.70 ERA for the 1,000 sim runs.  He had very few bad performances in the sim runs and quite a few outstanding ones, including several complete-game shutouts.  But ominously for Angel fans is what happens after Santana leaves - the numbers show an good chance of an ugly for the Angels pen for game 2.  The Sim shows a decent outing for Santana's counterpart, as Dice-K projects to have a solid outing, but nowhere near the odds of a great night that Santana (pictured) has.  The Boston bullpen doesn't appear to fare too well either, should it come to that.  

On offense, no Boston players project to have a big night, as might be expected with Santana doing well on the mound.  For the Angels, late-season acquisition Mark Teixeira projects as most likely to have a big night, averaging a very nice .833 OPS for the 1,000 runs of game 2.  Chone Figgins also projects as making a difference, averaging a .400 on-base percentage and a SB per game. 

:  The Angels defense shows as having a high chance of making a critical error - the 1,000 sim runs showed the Angels giving up an average of 2 unearned runs in the game - that's high for a one-game average.

As for the series, winning game one swings the odds dramatically in Boston's favor.  As we wrote in our preview of all the series, winning game one has a huge impact, particularly in a 5-game series.  Having won game 1, the odds of the Red Sox taking the series and advancing to the ALCS went from 42.6% to a 66.7% probability, a 1 in 4 chance of a sweep and a 50-50 chance of taking the series in 4 games or less.  Of course, the Angels can change those odds by winning game two...

- Dayne

Still not sure about The Sim?  See how we did in Tuesday's and Wednesday’s games.

Want to know more?  Check out our LDS predictions on ESPN (ALDS, NLDS), or here:


Phillies-Brewers NLDS

Phillies-Brewers Game 1

Phillies-Brewers Game 2

Dodgers-Cubs NLDS

Dodgers-Cubs Game 1

Dodgers-Cubs Game 2


Angels-Red Sox ALDS

Angels-Red Sox Game 1

Rays-White Sox ALDS

Rays-White Sox Game 1

Ray-White Sox Game 2