October 03, 2008 | By: Dayne Myers | Posted in: CEO Posts, Company News, Diamond Mind, Industry News, MLB Playoffs, SIM Analysis, SIM Stats, Tips

The Sim Says Starters Solid, Pens Shakey in Game 2 of Angels-Red Sox ALDS

ALDS Game 2 - ANGELS-RED SOX:

Game one of this series went just as The Sim predicted - a toss-up about as even as can be, with Boston starter Jon Lester being the key to a Red Sox victory and David Ortiz not being a factor. Diamond Mind got that right. So, what does The Sim cook up for game two? This time, not so even - the Los Angeles Angels won 553 games out of 1,000 sim runs, outscoring the Red Sox 4.1 to 3.8. ervinsantana_275

Keys to the Game: Can you say Ervin Santana? Sure you can. The Sim shows him as having high odds of a great outing, averaging a 2.70 ERA for the 1,000 sim runs. He had very few bad performances in the sim runs and quite a few outstanding ones, including several complete-game shutouts. But ominously for Angel fans is what happens after Santana leaves - the numbers show an good chance of an ugly for the Angels pen for game 2. The Sim shows a decent outing for Santana's counterpart, as Dice-K projects to have a solid outing, but nowhere near the odds of a great night that Santana (pictured) has. The Boston bullpen doesn't appear to fare too well either, should it come to that.

On offense, no Boston players project to have a big night, as might be expected with Santana doing well on the mound. For the Angels, late-season acquisition Mark Teixeira projects as most likely to have a big night, averaging a very nice .833 OPS for the 1,000 runs of game 2. Chone Figgins also projects as making a difference, averaging a .400 on-base percentage and a SB per game.

: The Angels defense shows as having a high chance of making a critical error - the 1,000 sim runs showed the Angels giving up an average of 2 unearned runs in the game - that's high for a one-game average.

As for the series, winning game one swings the odds dramatically in Boston's favor. As we wrote in our preview of all the series, winning game one has a huge impact, particularly in a 5-game series. Having won game 1, the odds of the Red Sox taking the series and advancing to the ALCS went from 42.6% to a 66.7% probability, a 1 in 4 chance of a sweep and a 50-50 chance of taking the series in 4 games or less. Of course, the Angels can change those odds by winning game two...