The Sim Says: 82% Sure of Phillies Sweep, Watch Feliz as Surprise Hero
PHILLIES vs. BREWERS, game 3:
We just finished 1,000 runs of game 1 on our Diamond Mind
simulation. Results? The Phillies are slight favorites to
close out the series, having won 528 times out of 1,000, scoring an average of
4.7 runs compared to 4.2 for the Brewers.
Keys to the Game: As in game one, getting on base was the key for Philadelphia, but they
also showed more power – The Sim sees Ryan Howard as particularly likely to
contribute a key home run, with Pat Burrell also likely to contribute with a
key shot or walk. If you're looking for a surprise contributor, The Sim
projects it to be Phillies third baseman 
Pedro Feliz. Stars Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins
project as more likely to have an off night, and Shane Victorino projects to
cool off after being the hero of game 2. For the Brew Crew, nobody stands
out as likely to shine though offensively. Ryan Braun shows a much lower
than normal likelihood of going yard. If there is to be a surprise hero,
The Sim likes Jason Kendall tonight.
All in all, it looks like Jamie Moyer handles the Brewers, and Brad Lidge
closes it out. If the Brewers do get some long-ball production, however,
their odds get much, much better.
Intangibles: The fans of Milwaukee have
waited 26 years to see the Brew Crew in the post-season, so Miller Park
should be rocking. That might even the odds a bit here.
Bottom Line: Look for a key home run in this one, and whoever gets it
wins … maybe a "walk 'n rock" sort of game. The Sim says this
one is Sabermetrician's sort of game.
Overall: Before the series, The Sim picked the Phillies to win this one,
most likely in 4 games. However, as we emphasized in our preview of game
2, the Brewers' needed 2 big starts from C.C. Sabathia, and that was a high
risk, given that he would need to pitch on 3 days' rest after throwing 122
pitches. Sure enough, C.C. got hammered. With that happening, the
odds of the Phillies winning the series now stand at 91.8%, with an 82% chance
that the series ending in Milwaukee
and a sweep the most likely outcome.
Still not sure about The Sim? See how we did in Tuesday's and Wednesday’s games.
Want to know more? Check out our LDS predictions on ESPN (ALDS, NLDS), or here:
NLDS
ALDS
- Dayne
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