Furcal, Kuroda Likely Keys to Dodgers Sweeping Cubs in NDLS
DODGERS-CUBS, Game 3:
The Diamond Mind sim is feeling a bit smug about this series, having
predicted the Dodgers to upset the Cubs and take the series. Can Chicago start a comeback,
or are the Fated Ones about to start a comeback? The Sim's projections
for game 3 indicated toss-up odds again. While L.A.
won 51.3% of the 1,000 sim runs, the Cubs actually outscored the Dodgers,
averaging 3.7 runs to the L.A.'s
3.6. In any case, it looks to be a low-scoring affair… unless the Cubs'
bullpen gags again. Sure enough, The Sim projects a fine performance from
Rich Harden (picture), but the Chicago
pen struggles.
Keys to the Game: The bullpens. The Sim projects both
starters, Harden for the Cubs and Hiroki Kuroda for L.A., each to give strong performances.
And when the Cub bullpen holds up after that, The Sim shows the Cubs will
likely win. As for hitting stars, look for Rafael Furcal to spark
the Dodgers, as Manny Ramirez projects to be less likely to have a big
game. Given the number of times he is projected to receive the ol' base
on balls, it appears the Cubs are likely to be pitching around the Dodgers'
red-hot newcomer. For the Cubs, well, The Sim doesn't project anybody to
have a high likelihood of a big game. For example, neither Alfonso
Soriano nor Aramis Ramirez project as very likely hit a home run
tonight. Such is the story of this post-season for the Cubbies. And if it
does get late into the game with the Dodgers in the lead, The Sim says it's
over – Takashi Saito projects a lights-out performance tonight if he
gets the call.
Intangibles: Whereas the Chicago
defense had a rough night in game two, The Sim sees a higher-than-normal chance
for the Dodgers to make some costly mistakes tonight. And a key factor
that cannot be simulated … are the Cubs already emotionally beaten? They
really need to get off to a good start tonight. In any case, this game
looks like a toss-up, with either the Cub bullpen or Dodger defense showing as
most likely to make the difference.
Series Projection: The L.A.
victory in game 2 increased their odds of taking the series to almost
90%. Only one team has ever come back from a 2-0 deficit in a five-game
series (the 2001 Yankees.) As The Sim predicted before the series
started, the 100-year drought looks like it'll be extended.
Still not sure about The Sim? See how we did in Tuesday's and Wednesday’s games.
Want to know more? Check out our LDS predictions on ESPN (ALDS, NLDS), or here:
NLDS
ALDS
- Dayne
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